🔥【Super Central Bank Weekly Explosion! On the night of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut, did it encounter a global market 'blackout'?】
Family, next week the financial market is about to welcome the ultimate script of the year! The Federal Reserve is highly likely to fire the first shot of interest rate cuts, but there is fierce internal debate. More stimulating is — at the time of the announcement, the global futures market completely 'crashed'! This volatility is likely to be astronomical 🚀
📅 Core Event: The Federal Reserve's 'Divided' First Cut
· Time: Thursday at 3 AM (interest rate decision) + 3:30 AM (Powell's press conference)
· Expectation: The probability of a 25 basis point cut is as high as 84%! This will be the first turn after the violent rate hikes, and its significance is enormous.
· The biggest highlight: Rarely severe internal division within the FOMC! Among the 12 voting members, 5 have already expressed opposition/skepticism regarding the interest rate cut. This is the most intense internal disagreement since 2019.
· What does this mean? Every word spoken by Powell will be magnified! Is he 'dovish' or 'hawkish'? This press conference will determine the imagined space for rate cuts in 2025.
⚠️ Explosive Risks: The market is welcoming the storm in a 'vacuum'!
The most dramatic scene is here: On Thursday (December 12), coinciding with the market closures of multiple countries!
✅ US stocks and European stocks are closed
✅ CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) all major futures contracts (gold, crude oil, foreign exchange, stock index) trading is suspended all day!
This means:
The Federal Reserve's decision at 3 AM and Powell's speech will explode in a 'market liquidity vacuum'! The initial emotions and volatility cannot be released in the futures market, and all energy may burst out at the opening moment on Friday. Spot gold and the foreign exchange market may experience bizarre and violent fluctuations! Please fasten your seatbelt!
👀 What should investors focus on?
Don't just focus on the 'interest rate cut' result; these are the key points:
1. Powell's tone: Is it dovish (worried about the economy) or hawkish (dead set on inflation)?
2. Mysterious 'dot plot': What is the median prediction of the committee members for the number of interest rate cuts in 2025 — 'opening the floodgates' or 'steady flow'?
3. Beware of 'delayed explosions': On Friday's market opening, be cautious of extreme volatility after liquidity returns!
