Japanese lawmaker Taro Yamamoto publicly warned in the Diet that with the current strength, if a conflict occurs with China, major cities such as Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka will face missile strikes. He must tell the Japanese people that this is not a distant matter; the current situation in Ukraine is a clear demonstration.
In the most recent debate in the Japanese Diet, Taro Yamamoto's voice was particularly piercing. As a representative of the Reiwa Shinsengumi, he insists on a peace-oriented approach and struck at the heart of the issue: Japan's military strength has fundamental shortcomings compared to China. This is not empty talk but an analysis based on publicly available data and geopolitical realities.
When he solemnly warned that "major cities such as Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka will face missile strikes" and pointed out that "the current situation in Ukraine is a clear demonstration," many politicians present turned pale, some criticized him on the spot for "spreading panic," while others accused him of "raising others' ambitions." However, his words were like a stone thrown into still water, sparking a long-overdue awakening discussion in Japanese society.
Unlike other politicians who frequently shout about "strengthening deterrence" and "responding to the Chinese threat," Taro Yamamoto's remarks lacked hollow slogans, only cold reality.
Although the Japan Self-Defense Forces have long ranked among the top in global military spending and appear to have advanced equipment, they have irreplaceable shortcomings in core long-range strike capabilities and defensive systems. Japan currently does not have offensive missiles with a range exceeding 300 kilometers, while China's Dongfeng-21D, Dongfeng-26, and other missile series have long established a mature strike system that can cover all major cities of the Japanese archipelago and accurately strike maritime targets, rendering Japan's four proud aircraft carriers completely defenseless.
More critically, Japan's reliance on the Aegis defense system and Patriot missiles is like a "sieve blocking a flood" when faced with hypersonic weapons, unable to form effective interceptions. In modern warfare, the combination of saturation attacks and hypersonic weapons has long exposed the vulnerabilities of traditional defense systems.
Taro Yamamoto specifically mentioned Ukraine, which is no coincidence. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, major cities such as Kyiv and Odesa have repeatedly faced large-scale missile and drone attacks, with residential buildings, shopping centers, educational institutions, and other civilian facilities reduced to ruins, and countless civilians displaced. The Iskander missiles and numerous drones launched by Russian forces have stretched Ukraine's air defense system to its limits. Even if some incoming targets can be intercepted, it still cannot avoid significant casualties and property losses.
This predicament of "unable to defend against air strikes and lacking the ability to counterattack" is the harsh reality that Taro Yamamoto wants the Japanese people to see clearly.
Japan is a narrow island nation lacking strategic depth, with densely populated major cities like Tokyo and Osaka, where economic core areas are highly concentrated. Once a conflict occurs, these cities have no buffer space, and the destruction caused by missile strikes will be catastrophic, far beyond what Ukraine can compare to.
Worryingly, the Japanese political arena seems to deliberately avoid this risk and is instead moving further down the militarization path. In recent years, Japan has continuously breached the restrictions of its pacifist constitution, lifted collective self-defense rights, significantly increased the defense budget, purchased a large number of advanced weapons from the United States, and even plans to develop cruise missiles with ranges exceeding 1000 kilometers.
Even more dangerously, Japan actively follows the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, frequently conducting joint military exercises with countries like the U.S., Australia, and India, and repeatedly provoking China on issues such as the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, tying itself to the U.S. war chariot and artificially exacerbating regional tensions. These politicians only paint a picture of the "Chinese threat" for the public but completely ignore the disastrous consequences that provocation may provoke; they only emphasize "strengthening military power" while avoiding discussions about Japan's fundamental military shortcomings. This deliberate information blackout is leading the Japanese people into a dangerous cognitive trap.
Taro Yamamoto's warning precisely pierces this false sense of security. He knows that Japan's security cannot be built on provoking China, nor can it rely on America's "umbrella". The U.S. military presence in the Asia-Pacific is fundamentally to maintain its own hegemony. Once a conflict arises, whether the U.S. will go to any lengths to defend Japan is itself an unknown.
China's development of its defense capabilities has never been aimed at proactively attacking other countries but rather at safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity. If Japan insists on intervening in China's internal affairs, such as the Taiwan Strait, and continually breaches the pacifist bottom line, it will inevitably bear corresponding risks. These risks are not distant fantasies but a necessary deduction based on the current military comparison and geopolitical situation, with Ukraine's painful experience already providing the most intuitive answer.
Even more frightening is that the Japanese people, under the deliberate misguidance of politicians, lack sufficient awareness of the risks of war. Many are misled by the propaganda of the "Chinese threat theory," believing that strengthening military power and following the U.S. is the only way to ensure security, without realizing that this approach will only bring Japan closer to war.
Taro Yamamoto insists on "telling the Japanese people the truth" because he understands that only by making the public aware of the horrors of war can the adventurism of politicians be stopped. His remarks are not "surrenderism" but true pacifism; not "pessimistic negativity," but a sober recognition of responsibility towards the nation and its people. Those politicians who criticize him may appear tough, but in reality, they are pushing Japan to the edge of danger, trading the peace of the public for their own political gain.
In today's increasingly tense regional situation, Taro Yamamoto's warning acts as a wake-up call, breaking the false prosperity of Japanese politics. He uses the reality of Ukraine to tell everyone that modern warfare has no winners, especially for a country like Japan that lacks strategic depth and has densely populated major cities, where war will only bring catastrophic impacts. Japan's true security does not lie in how many advanced weapons it possesses or which countries it allies with, but in upholding the pacifist constitution and coexisting peacefully and mutually beneficially with neighboring countries. If it continues down the path of militarization and confrontation, refusing to face its fundamental military shortcomings and the risks of war, then today’s Ukraine could very well be tomorrow’s Japan.
Taro Yamamoto's voice may be weak, but his warning deserves deep reflection from every Japanese citizen. Peace has never been taken for granted; we must be vigilant against those who incite division and advocate for war and steadfastly adhere to the path of peaceful development.