一转眼就长大

Midday Review: In the morning, the A-share market continued to rise, with the ChiNext Index soaring by 2%, leading the two markets, and the Shanghai Composite Index breaking above the 20-day moving average. Will the rise of A-shares continue in the afternoon? Is there a risk of a pullback after hitting a high?
The F5G concept led the gains, with the communication services and securities sectors seeing the largest increases. The hot topics leading the morning included the F5G concept, with封装光学, communication equipment, terahertz, optical fiber concepts, 6G concepts, copper cable high-speed links, commercial industries, securities, satellite navigation, WIFI6 concepts, photolithography machines, etc. being among the top gainers in the morning. Among them, the F5G concept rose by more than four points, leading the two markets. From the top gainers, it is not difficult to see that sectors concentrated in technology themes such as communication equipment, software development, semiconductors, and components are the main direction of the A-share market's rise today. In addition, the securities sector continued the upward trend from last week, with the securities sector rising by more than two points in the morning, and industry leaders such as CITIC, Dongcai, and Guotai all recorded increases of over three points. At this stage of the A-share market, the strong rise of brokerage stocks undoubtedly can better drive the rise of the A-share market; the greater the increase in brokerage stocks, the greater the hope for the A-share market to return to a bull market.
The two major stock indices in the Shenzhen market continued to lead the gains, with the ChiNext Index rising by over 70 points and exceeding 2%. In the morning, the two major stock indices in the Shenzhen market remained the largest gainers among the four major indices, with the ChiNext Index once rising by over 70 points and exceeding 2%, leading the two markets. As of now, both major stock indices in the Shenzhen market have stood above the 20-day moving average, and there is hope for further strength above the 20-day moving average. From the information on the market, blue-chip stocks in the ChiNext Index continue to be the main driving force behind the rise; companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xin Yisheng, Shenghong Technology, Tianfu Communication, and Jiangbolong, all having a market value of over 100 billion, have seen increases of more than five points, with Tianfu Communication once rising by 18% during trading, approaching the daily limit. For these doubling bull stocks, I still do not recommend chasing them; if you want to chase, it should be early. Chasing after they have doubled or even tenfold entails risks that far exceed potential returns.
The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and rose, standing above the 20-day moving average, with a transaction volume of 500 billion. Driven by the continuous rise of financial stocks, the Shanghai Composite Index showed an upward trend in the morning, rising more than 20 points during the session; after two weeks, the Shanghai Composite Index has once again stood above the 20-day moving average. In addition, the transaction volume in the Shanghai market also broke 500 billion in the morning, an increase of 100 billion compared to the same period of the previous trading day, and it is expected that today's transaction volume in the Shanghai market may exceed 800 billion. The Shanghai Composite Index, which has risen sharply, has already stood above the 20-day moving average, but to stabilize above the 20-day moving average, steady growth in volume is still needed. A transaction volume of 800 billion can help the Shanghai Composite Index stand above the 20-day moving average; a transaction volume of 900 billion or over 1 trillion will help the Shanghai Composite Index stabilize above the 20-day moving average, breaking through 4000 points and even creating new highs for the year.

实力早已众望所归[鲜花][鲜花][鲜花]！这波行情够不够强劲？这才是实打实的反弹行情！
今日新关注方向： 东田 航天 初灵
当前情况详情：具体内容请查看附图
如果大家对个谷操作节奏把握不准，欢迎通过私信和我交流探讨！
特别提醒：我的情况会根据实时行情灵活调整，严禁盲目跟风操作。若因跟风买入或卖出产生情况任何盈亏，均需由个人自行承担全部责任！
股市行情向来复杂多变，风险始终贯穿投资全程，在此再次郑重强调：投资务必谨慎！谨慎！再谨慎！

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has turned into a prolonged war of attrition, and Ukraine has exchanged its resources for a 'shabby report card'.
Territory has shrunk by nearly 20%, with the four eastern regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia under substantial control by Russia, losing 80% of its coastline, equivalent to nearly half of Ukraine being gone.
The population has plummeted dramatically, from 43 million before the war to about 30 million now, with over 10 million fleeing abroad, and heavy casualties among young adults, making conscription a norm on the streets.
Economic sovereignty has been hollowed out, with national debt skyrocketing from over 20 billion to 230 billion USD, the foundations of agriculture and industry collapsing, and mineral extraction rights taken by the U.S. in exchange for aid, leaving future generations to repay debts.
Diplomacy has become a supporting role; attempts to join NATO have been rejected, peace negotiations have been directly dictated by the U.S. and Russia, and Zelensky has transformed from a hero against Russia into the main course on the menu.
Behind the battlefield benefits for Russia is also an overdrawn situation, but land and resources give it a hold on the future.
The territory has been solidified, not only consolidating Crimea but also incorporating the four eastern regions into Russia, effectively controlling 120,000 square kilometers of land and key resources.
The economy has rebounded, but internal wounds remain serious; under sanctions, it relies on military-industrial self-circulation and energy shifts to Asia, leading to a slight GDP growth, but military expenditures consume 40% of the budget, and technological blockades have stalled high-end industries.
Geopolitical cards have been reshuffled; after completely tearing ties with the West, Russia has turned to embrace the Global South, and conducts trade with countries like China and India in yuan, unexpectedly broadening its circle of friends.
Domestic power has become more concentrated, cleaning up oligarchs and controlling public opinion under the guise of wartime; the public's tolerance is high, but pressures for conscription and inflationary risks are accumulating.
This war has reached a deadlock where 'it's exhausting for everyone to keep going, but stopping hurts even more'.
Ukraine has sacrificed its territory and sovereignty, and the promises from the West are mostly empty checks; Russia has gained a buffer zone, but at the cost of long-term isolation and financial overextension.
In simple terms, neither side has a winner, only that some are losing visibly, while others are suffering in the shadows.

12.8
一、隔夜消息与产业逻辑深度解析
1. 商业航天：顶层设计落地，产业化进程全面提速事件：发布2025-2027年专项行动计划；SpaceX明确明年下半年IPO时间表。
关注环节：卫星制造与运营（中国卫星 ）、火箭配套（航天智装 ）、关键元器件（航天机电 ）。需注意技术研发风险及发射失败的可能影响。
2. 两岸融合/区域发展：政策红利进入密集兑现期事件：福建示范区建设与海南自贸港封关运作进入倒计时。
核心逻辑：政策落地具备高确定性，相关公司业绩能见度高。需关注具体项目推进进度。
3. 大金融：监管导向优化，行业生态有望改善事件：监管部门明确将拓宽券商资本空间，推动行业从价格竞争转向专业服务竞争。解析：此举旨在优化券商经营环境，鼓励其发展资本中介、财富管理、创新投行等业务，提升ROE。
利好头部券商（中信证券 ）及金融科技 （指南针 、财富趋势 ）。
行情若要持续，也需要大金融板块稳住指数并提供流动性。
4. 机器人：产业战略地位提升，静候政策细则事件：消息称相关部门已着手关注并计划明年推出机器人领域行政命令。
核心：三花、五洲新春、长盛等
5. 存储芯片：AI需求驱动，供需格局持续紧张事件：全球AI基建热潮导致存储芯片短缺，美光退出部分市场。
解析：HBM（高带宽内存）等高端存储芯片是AI服务器的核心组件，需求爆发式增长。美光的退出进一步加剧了供给紧张局面，利好存储模组、芯片设计及国产存储芯片厂商。
6. 量子科技：标准化工作启动，产业化临近事件：工信部公示量子信息标准化技术委员会筹建方案。
解析：标准化是产业从实验室走向规模化、市场化的关键一步。标志着我国量子通信、量子计算等产业即将进入加速发展阶段。
关注量子通信核心设备、安全服务及核心元器件供应商。
二、策略
周五指数大涨，但两市量能仅放量了1000多亿，周末金融方面利好，今天如果指数高开，需留意两市量能是否继续放大，最好重回2万亿，否则容易冲高回落。
1、最近顺指数异动最明显的两个方向机器人 和CPO，机器人上周五尾盘抢筹，那么骏亚正常来说是要开一字的，容量就看三花和长盈，cpo这边就是那几个权重加上赛微。
2、上周五商业航天也共振了指数，正常龙洲是要大单一字的，容量核心是航天发展 ，20cm这边是招标股份 ，锚定好板块强度，容量票不怕分歧，就怕加速，越分歧越买，一致减仓。
3、最后一个就是抱团方向或者是说异动方向，上周五海王主动挑战异动，今天它的反馈很重要，合富周末也传被重点监控，如果调整了，短期就不用看了，加上如果指数放量上攻的话，这边很容易瓦解，最好是能稳住，那就能继续抱团。
整体思路就这么多，祝大家新的一周大赚[烟花][烟花]

今天又要高开了，每次高开都让人纠结万分，因为它会走两种走势……
高开低走或者高开低走再拉升，遇到第一种还好点，因为资金已经形成了高开就跑的条件反射，如果遇到第二种，跑了就卖飞了？
那么怎么去应对呢？
我们只需要关注两个方面
一、成交量，想要继续上涨，成交量今天要突破2万亿大关，不然就会回落！
二、创业板，为啥不看大盘又看创业板了呢？因为不同的时间，要看不同的指数，目前创业板是最强的，大盘会被它带动，我们只需要看创业板的支撑3104点！
如果高开放量拉升，那就可以持股待涨，如果高开不放量，创业板开始回落，那就先T之后，在3104点附近企稳后，可以再拿回来！
消息刺激不好预判，那就盘中再看吧

Will there be a big surprise today? Last Friday's strong bullish candle broke the recent dull market. It gave investors hope, and the news over the weekend was also positive, although the US stock market had some twists, Chinese concept stocks rose by 1.29%. Can we continue to rebound today with the tailwind?
First, let's talk about the favorable policies that add fuel to the fire:
The policy is favorable: The biggest highlight over the weekend was the statement from the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing. He clearly proposed to 'moderately expand the capital space and leverage limits for brokers,' promoting brokers 'to shift from price competition to value competition.' This means that:
Brokers can 'play' with more money: With the relaxation of capital and leverage space, theoretically, brokers can conduct more business (such as proprietary trading, market making, derivatives), and even their ability to borrow money to invest in stocks has increased. This presents a potential increase in market liquidity expectations.
The benefit is most direct for leading brokers: Large leading brokers, with strong financial strength and relatively standardized risk control, are more likely to enjoy policy dividends. Guotai Junan declared, 'The Chinese stock market will enter a year-end offensive, reaching new highs.' It feels somewhat optimistic, but it also reflects a positive expectation of policy beneficiaries. In the long run, this is indeed expected to guide the industry to be healthier and focus more on professional services, rather than the past pure commission price wars.
Boosting market confidence: This directly targets the core of the financial sector—brokers. The policy support intention is clear, sending positive policy signals to market participants, especially institutional investors. Last Friday, brokers and insurance led the index to break through 3900 points, and if brokers continue to be strong today, at least the index will rise easily.
Chinese concept stocks performed positively: Last Friday, although the overall US stock market fluctuated, Chinese concept stocks rose against the trend by over 1%, providing some positive support to related sectors in the A-share market today (such as technology stocks and internet concepts under Hong Kong Stock Connect) and overall foreign capital sentiment.
Now, let’s take a look at the 'road ahead' and 'potential pitfalls':
Year-end effects show significant divergence: This is crucial! Most investors, due to year-end capital recovery, settlement, ranking battles, and other factors, tend to prefer 'cashing in,' leaning towards a conservative style. There is widespread concern that the year-end capital situation will not support a significant market rise. This sharply contrasts with the optimistic calls from leading brokers for a 'year-end market.' This means that while market confidence may be boosted, it may not necessarily form a consistent, sustained buying force, and capital may be more 'short and quick' or concentrated in a few sectors.
Volume is the 'lifeline': Last Friday's surge was 'on volume,' indicating that real money entered the market. But whether it can continue to increase in volume today and even this week is the key! The emotional impulse brought by favorable policies, if not supported by sustained capital inflow, is like fireworks—brilliant but short-lived. We need to keep a close eye on the trading volume. If there’s a surge today but the volume doesn’t follow, can the volume increase by over 10% in half an hour? If it doesn't increase, we need to be wary of a pullback risk.
Beware of the curse of 'lifting the index while individual stocks fall': The direct beneficiaries of favorable policies are large financial institutions (brokers, banks, insurance), especially brokers. If today’s funds only recognize these large players, they can indeed lift the index (such as the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300), even making it look rosy. But other small and mid-cap stocks and theme stocks may suffer because the limited funds are absorbed by the large-cap stocks. The result is seeing the index rise while your account may still be losing money; this kind of '80-20 division' or even '90-10 division' is the most frustrating. Therefore, today we should not only look at whether the major index is in the red but also compare the number of stocks that are rising versus those that are falling, and observe the overall profitability effect in the market.
Where are the 'landmines' this week? There are several important time points this week:
Intensive new stock subscriptions: 5 new stocks will somewhat divert market funds; although the impact is limited, it acts as a small siphon when the capital situation is already delicate.
Economic data release (Wednesday): The CPI and PPI for November. This relates to the market's judgment on the strength of the domestic economic recovery and deflationary pressures. The quality of the data directly affects expectations for the economic fundamentals.
Federal Reserve meeting (Thursday): Although the market expects a high probability of an interest rate cut in December at 86.2%, as long as the shoe hasn’t dropped, there exists a 'expectation gap' risk (for example, if the Fed hints at cutting too early? Or simply does not act this time?). As the meeting approaches (the second half of this week), especially if there’s a surge today, some funds may become cautious and choose to wait for the Fed's outcome.
Comprehensive judgment: A surge during the opening is highly likely: The weekend's favorable policy + the lingering effect of last Friday's surge + good performance of Chinese concept stocks suggest that today the A-shares are likely to open high, and may even continue to push higher in the morning. Broker stocks should lead the rise.
The key lies in 'volume' and 'structure': If within half an hour to an hour after the opening the volume is very strong (significantly greater than last Friday during the same period), and the number of rising stocks significantly exceeds the number of falling stocks, with the market's hot spots spreading (not just financial stocks rising, but also technology, consumer, etc. showing performance), then the market is expected to be healthier and more sustainable.
If after a high opening the volume quickly shrinks, or only a few large-cap stocks (especially financial stocks) are rising while most stocks are falling or even plummeting, then we must be very careful! This is a typical 'lifting the index while individual stocks fall' scenario, which can easily trigger a high-to-low reversal, which may occur in the afternoon or tomorrow. It is especially important to note that if broker stocks surge but then fall sharply, it will have a huge impact on market sentiment.
The performance of financial stocks (especially brokers) is a key barometer, but we must also be wary of them dancing solo and causing market blood loss.
To summarize: Today, the market is likely to have the momentum to push higher with the 'tailwind' from the weekend. But the key lies in two points: first, whether the volume can truly sustain an increase (this is the thermometer of sustainability), and second, whether the market structure is healthy (whether the profitability effect is widespread). We must be particularly wary of a false prosperity where only large-cap stocks perform while individual stocks languish. In terms of operation, if you have benefiting stocks like brokers, you can observe their strength and sustainability; those looking to chase highs must be cautious and not let emotions cloud their judgment. Closely monitor the flow of funds and differentiation during today’s trading; this is more important than simply looking at index fluctuations. There are still data and the Federal Reserve meeting later this week, and uncertainty remains, so market sentiment may fluctuate. Maintain a level of clarity, don’t get too carried away!

Is the A-share market expected to open slightly higher today? One major potential downside requires close attention!
The A-share market is about to open, and based on market expectations, it is highly likely to experience an upward opening trend, though the specific extent of the opening is difficult to predict accurately. Overall, the market is expected to continue its upward rhythm until Wednesday, while attention should be paid to the market's reaction as various expectations gradually materialize on Thursday and Friday.
It is particularly important to note that on December 19, there is a possibility of a yen interest rate hike, which poses a potential risk that can be termed a "gray rhino" event. If the yen raises interest rates as expected, various assets such as US stocks, digital currencies, and gold may face widespread correction pressure, and the A-share market is also likely to be affected by emotional transmission and face downward pressure simultaneously.
However, from a long-term perspective, if this downside triggers a market correction that establishes a temporary low, it may instead complete a consolidation phase for the spring A-share market, laying the groundwork for subsequent upward momentum.

12.8 Weekend Impact on Market News, Those in Cash are Anxious.
1. China Securities Regulatory Commission, moderately expanding broker capital space and leverage limits, favorable for brokerage stocks, also the reason for last Friday's surge.
2. U.S. inflation data below expectations, consumer growth stagnates, further increasing expectations for interest rate cuts in December.
3. New regulations for fund company performance assessments, compensation tied to performance; if performance does not meet standards, fund managers may have their salaries reduced by 30%.
4. Insurance funds adjusting risk factors, during this time of year, insurance capital is expected to replenish positions, favoring sectors like 300 dividends and 50 what’s old.
5. Key focus on the ChiNext Index, it outperforms the Shanghai Composite Index. Last week, the ChiNext made multiple attempts to break through the 60-day moving average, ultimately standing above it on Friday. The main players are looking for breakthroughs in the ChiNext, and this rebound could see the ChiNext Index reach 3200 points.
Don't forget to like and follow for investment and financial advice. Hopefully, today won’t see a high followed by a drop.

December 8 Pre-market Plan: Continuous Good News Over the Weekend, Can the Market Open High and Rise Further?
1. The news over the weekend is quite encouraging, with two major positive developments concerning securities and insurance. On Friday afternoon, there were already movements in these two sectors; whether this performance can be sustained is the biggest focus for the market's ability to open high and continue rising the next day!
Recently, the market has rebounded from an absolute low point, but the market's trading volume continues to shrink. Although Friday showed an overall rebound trend, the volume was still only 1.7 trillion. Therefore, whether the early trading on the next day can continue to increase volume is the basis for judging whether the high open can be sustained. If the overall volume significantly increases after the market opens, then the probability of the market maintaining strength the next day is very high. In this case, at least it can maintain the bullish reversal of the day, making the upcoming market more worthwhile to anticipate!
The performance of large financial sectors is highly watchable. If the positives are indeed extremely strong, then Ruida will undoubtedly see huge single orders. In this case, the entire large financial sector will be fully driven, and under the leadership of the bull market, the probability of a widespread bullish market performance is very high. Conversely, if even Ruida cannot escape a single order, then no matter how much good news there is, capital may vote with their feet at the open, and the probability of the market opening high and then realizing is very high!
2. For short-term trading, the performance of the main index is more of a supporting factor, while market sentiment is the core of short-term trading! The short-term sentiment on Friday was actually quite high. First, the two high-profile stocks, Haiwang and Haixin, showed a reversal phenomenon, and two strong themes, commercial aerospace and Fujian, demonstrated continuity. This performance is clearly a feast for short-term traders, and if they hit the rhythm correctly, it is easy to reap profits. Whether this sentiment can be sustained will be very interesting to observe in the early trading of the next day!
Haiwang triggered severe abnormal movement on Friday, and the upper reaction to this trigger was very mild. Routine announcements were delayed until Sunday, and Haiwang did not enter the key monitoring list, let alone face a suspension threat. If there is capital guidance the next day, it may become the breakthrough dragon of short-term sentiment. After all, the current market's severe abnormal movements are a hurdle. Without breaking out individual stocks, the market is unlikely to open up significantly. Therefore, whether Haiwang can show a strong performance in early trading is very much worth looking forward to. If it shows strong performance in the auction and can see strong capital support after the open, then the entire short-term sentiment will be completely driven, at least the cautious sentiment of capital will fundamentally change. Conversely, if its auction does not meet expectations, there will be a risk of high-position stocks realizing profits!
3. The top stocks, Anji and Taiyang, are both Fujian direction stocks. From Friday's patterns, Anji is likely to accelerate its trend. If its auction is very strong, the probability of it achieving a high open and immediate limit is still quite high. However, once the market opens and there are obvious divergences in the Fujian direction, whether Anji can see strong support on its limit will still be a short-term focus!
Taiyang faced negative feedback in the auction due to a reduction in holdings on Friday, but then returned strongly with a deep V pattern. This performance is very strong. The next day, it will still be in competition with Anji. If the auction strength reverses, it is not ruled out that this stock will again find its position. Therefore, Anji and Taiyang should be viewed together; the strength or weakness of the auction may likely determine the final result. If the overall sentiment in the Fujian direction is good, it is not ruled out that both stocks will advance simultaneously!
Haixin's reversal is very beautiful, and Haiwang has a strong supplementary rise from Ruikang, while Haixin also has Anji. Moreover, from the perspective of sector sentiment, Haixin's sector heat is more apparent. Once Haiwang can continue strongly, Haixin may follow and challenge serious abnormal movements, especially if Anji can show strong performance at the open. Thus, for Haixin, it is worth watching the performances of both Haiwang and Anji together, as it may also attract capital to support the relay!
The stock with the highest recognition in the Fujian direction should be Guomai. It is a new high limit after a period of continuous adjustment at a high position. It would not be surprising to see acceleration the next day. From the weekend's heat, if it can open 6 points higher in the auction, this stock will show a limit trend. If the auction shows an expectation gap, then be cautious about the risk of realizing profits at a high!
Shida, although it advanced with a bad limit, its short-term pattern is indeed very similar to Hangfa. If the auction shows an unexpected performance, there is a probability of a second wave, especially if market repair is significant, the AI direction may show performance. Conversely, the old themes like Pingtan and Hefei may be easily abandoned, so whether Shida can show a clear weak-to-strong transition in the auction is worth paying attention to, especially if Guomai is particularly strong, it will definitely drive Shida!
4. Commercial aerospace also had good news over the weekend. This direction is popular among retail investors, but after a sustained high, it may take advantage of good news to realize profits. After all, relying on retail investors for a long-term strategy is unrealistic. On Friday, Hangfa's small group clearly showed a trend of both buying and withdrawing. Once the entire commercial aerospace sector shows significant negative feedback, Hangfa can easily move to realize profits. After all, this stock has many profit-taking positions, and capital often prefers to sell off during high periods. Therefore, caution is needed for the relay of Hangfa. If it is really strong, it is crucial to see capital guidance in early trading. If it does not break through the intraday average line after the open, then there is a real risk of significant adjustment in the short term!
Longzhou is the strongest stock in the commercial aerospace direction. Whether it will show divergence at the open is a barometer of whether commercial aerospace can continue. If it shows obvious divergence, then the entire commercial aerospace sector should be cautious about the risk of realizing profits. Whether Longzhou can withstand the divergence and continue to strengthen is a major point of interest. After all, although it broke through the previous high, the overall volume release is not good. If there is significant selling pressure, whether it can attract capital support is an unknown. Therefore, whether this stock can relay depends on the strength of capital support!
Hangji is another stock in the sector with three limits. Its feeling on Friday was that there was significant divergence. Under such a strong overall trend in the sector, only in the afternoon did capital start to support the recovery. Therefore, its auction performance the next day will be another major focus for commercial aerospace. If its auction shows significant negative feedback, then today commercial aerospace will have a major divergence expectation. In this case, caution is needed for the relay in this direction. If it does not show repair at the open, it can easily lead to a crash and drag down the entire sector. Therefore, the performance of Hangji at the open is equally important for commercial aerospace!
The content in this article is for sharing and communication only and should not be considered actual trading advice!

Important Financial News Summary
1. Overseas Market Trends
The three major U.S. stock indices all rose slightly, with the Dow up 0.22%, the Nasdaq up 0.31%, and the S&P 500 index up 0.19%. Most large technology stocks rose, with storage concepts and retail department stores leading the gains; the FTSE A50 futures index rose 0.41% in the overnight session, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 1.29%, with most popular Chinese concept stocks rising.
2. WQ: Moderately expand brokerage capital space and leverage limits, shifting from price competition to value competition; securities firms and investment institutions should work together with investors for mutual benefit.
3. ZJ: Adjust risk factors related to insurance company business, lowering the risk factors for insurance companies investing in the constituents of the CSI 300 index and ordinary stocks listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board.
4. Ministry of Commerce: Promote consumption of durable goods and drive "artificial intelligence + consumption."
5. Incremental funds are here! In November, over 1,200 securities investment funds completed registration, an increase of nearly 30% compared to October.
6. Two departments issued the "National Basic Medical Insurance, Maternity Insurance, and Work Injury Insurance Drug Catalog" and the "Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Catalog."
7. Chip sales exploded! In October, global semiconductor sales surged by 33% year-on-year, with DRAM sales soaring by 90% year-on-year. Institutions expect storage chip prices to rise another 20% in early 2026.
8. ZJ meeting: Clear requirements for market value management, cash dividends, share repurchases, etc., to promote listed companies to enhance investment value and increase awareness of returning to investors.
9. On December 5, the "first domestic GPU stock" Moore Threads officially landed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with offline institutional accounts collectively earning approximately 19.1 billion yuan in floating profits, among which public funds, pension funds, and annuities became the biggest winners.
Disclaimer: Personal opinions, for reference only. Trade at your own risk!

December 8 morning review, positive news continues over the weekend, and the Shanghai Composite Index will rise sharply on Monday. If there is a significant gap-up at the open, it is not advisable to chase the price excessively. Wait for a pullback, and you can increase your positions on dips. The securities market is characterized by impulsive trends, and significant rises should be met with profit-taking.
This weekend brought major positive news, with unreliable sources beginning to soften their stance, positioning China as a nearly equal competitor. Emphasis is placed on developing economic and trade relations based on mutual benefit and equality. The external situation is gradually easing, and a model of joint governance by two powers has become a norm.
This Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. U.S. stocks will rise significantly, and the Asia-Pacific stock markets will also follow suit with substantial gains. After a significant decline, the Shanghai Composite Index has already adjusted to an appropriate level. The market outlook remains optimistic before Wednesday, allowing for position increases on dips.
I have repeatedly emphasized that the Shenzhen market will outperform the Shanghai market for a long time. The ChiNext Index, communication equipment, artificial intelligence, and chips have greater upward potential. Strong sectors in traditional industries, such as chemicals, rare earths, commercial aerospace, and electricity, can also be increased on dips.
The moving average support for the Shanghai Composite Index in May is strong, with the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 60-day moving averages all turning upwards. Maintain confidence and patience while waiting for the market to break upwards. A peak of 4000 points this week is expected. Wishing everyone good luck on Monday!

The night is deep, and regarding tomorrow's A-share market, I want to emphasize a few points to prevent anyone from missing them:
1. The biggest news over the weekend is that the United States quietly released its latest "National Security Strategy," which states: it will abandon global hegemony, adjust its economic relationship with China, and acknowledge that China has become a "near-equal competitor."
2. This is the first time since 1979 that the United States has acknowledged in a strategic document that the U.S.-China relationship has become "nearly equal," and the U.S. will retreat from the role of "global police" to focus primarily on the Americas, ensuring absolute security at home.
3. On April 7 this year, the United States suddenly proposed "reciprocal tariffs," marking the official start of the global trade war, with China being the only country that has stood firm from start to finish. After nearly a year of confrontation, the United States finally admits that it cannot win the trade war.
4. Enough is enough; there is no need to endure any longer. The moment China and the United States completely overturn the table is the day the unprecedented major change of the century officially begins. Since it is an unprecedented major change, there will definitely be turbulent waves; the East will rise while the West will fall, which is the trend of the times, and this cannot be changed.
5. On this planet, the fist is the only unchanging truth, as seen in the India-Pakistan conflict, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the U.S.-China trade war. According to relevant news reports: starting December 1, South Korea's electronic entry card declaration system will designate Taiwan as "China (Taiwan)."
6. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol stated at the Blue House in Seoul: South Korea and China have inseparable close ties in geography, economy, history, and socio-cultural aspects, and maintaining the current bilateral relationship is crucial.
7. Last Thursday, the market dipped and then rebounded. Although the Shanghai Composite Index did not fall significantly, panic selling occurred among individual stocks in both markets, and many people were shocked, shouting in fear. As the year-end approaches, the main capital has completely withdrawn, and at this moment, it is time to cut losses and exit the market to fight again next year.
8. I clearly pointed out last Thursday night: "In the last two days, the main capital has obviously been pushing people off the bus. Starting Friday, the market will welcome a comprehensive counterattack!"
9. Last Friday, the market opened high and fluctuated upward, with the brokerage sector rising sharply, over 4,300 stocks in both markets went up, and the market officially welcomed a comprehensive counterattack. Many people were half-believing and half-doubting, could it be that the main capital has returned?
10. Hehe, the main capital has never left, how could there be a talk of returning? The back-and-forth chasing highs and cutting losses is just the retail investors themselves. Excluding the influence of news, tomorrow, Monday, the market will open high and rise further, and the Shanghai Composite Index will pull up another medium-sized positive line under the leadership of the brokerage sector!
11. At this moment, no matter what others say or do, I always hold a full position in stocks, firmly bullish. When the index was at 3000 points, I said this; today, I am still fully invested, unmoved like a mountain!
In the quiet of the night, let your heart out to patch it up, and when you wake up, you will be full of confidence!
Your mindset is your feng shui, your character is your luck. Being positive and optimistic will surely bring prosperity!
Liking this is the greatest support for me!

Weekend hot spot summary, next week's A-share sector sorting is here!
First, let's talk about the good news!
1. Good news for financial sectors such as brokerages and insurance.
Mainly, we will see if there are any limit-up stocks tomorrow morning. If not, be careful of a pullback after a rise, but I am bullish in the short term because funds are entering the market!
2. The central bank has increased its gold holdings for the 13th consecutive month.
As long as the Federal Reserve does not stop cutting interest rates, the rise of gold is unlikely to stop!
3. Commercial aerospace. Communication!
It accelerated last Friday, and since there are still several rockets to recover, expectations remain!
4. Cross-strait relations.
No new good news, the market is focusing on adding other concepts! Therefore, the main logic is based on other concepts!
5. Humanoid robots and other technologies, December will be mainly chaotic battles, this wave hasn't risen, feeling it will be the mainstream of the next wave.

The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada passed a law that removes Russian from the list of languages protected by the Charter of Regional or Minority Languages. Previously, the Ukrainian government had made several attempts to push for this law, but the Verkhovna Rada withdrew the bill twice.

To understand why Ukraine has a problem with the Russian language, we need to look back at its historical burdens. During the Soviet era, Russian was the lingua franca in Ukraine, suppressing local languages. After independence, Ukraine has been trying to reclaim its linguistic sovereignty.

After the 2014 Crimea incident, the relationship between the two countries was completely severed, and the push for de-Russification became politically correct. After the outbreak of conflict in 2022, this momentum surged even more, with street signs in Russian being changed almost entirely.

This legislation to remove the protective status of the Russian language essentially aims to downgrade Russian to an ordinary foreign language, on par with English and German, no longer enjoying any special privileges.

However, the implementation of this is quite delicate. Ukraine claims it is for the protection of local languages, but the newly added Hebrew, Crimean Tatar, and others have fewer speakers than Russian users combined.

Data shows that nearly 30% of Ukraine's population still communicates in Russian daily, especially in the eastern and southern regions.

With so many people suddenly deprived of their language rights, the local populace is clearly unhappy. Protests have erupted in Kharkiv and Odesa, with elderly individuals holding banners saying "Don't take away our mother tongue," leading to some difficult scenes.

What’s even more absurd is Ukraine's handling of the Moldovan language. The official language of Moldova is actually Romanian, but Ukraine fabricated a "Moldovan language" to include it in the list, and now has acted to remove it, which has left many confused.

Linguists have long criticized this as a political game, with no relation to linguistics. Ukraine's actions are likely an attempt to curry favor with Moldova, especially as the two countries have been getting closer recently, even establishing a grain export corridor together.

The legal text is quite meticulous, stating that the protection scope for other minority languages remains unchanged while adding several new ones. However, a closer examination reveals that the newly added Urum and Karaim languages may not have enough speakers in all of Ukraine to fill a soccer field.

This symbolic protection seems more like an attempt to silence the international community, showing that Ukraine is not engaging in language discrimination. The European Union has been closely monitoring Ukraine's language policy and previously warned against violating minority protection agreements.

The Russian response was intense, accusing Ukraine of "linguistic genocide." Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova declared that this is an outright persecution of Russian speakers and threatened to take the matter to the European Court of Human Rights.

Ukraine is not backing down either; the Minister of Culture retorted that it has "finally rid itself of the colonial language shackles." The two sides have engaged in a war of words, turning the language issue into a political bargaining chip.

The actual impact may be greater than anticipated. Ukrainian Russian-language media are the first to be hit; previously, they could rely on charter protection, but now they may face large-scale revisions or closures.

The education system faces more challenges, as Russian schools will either have to transform or shut down, leading to mass unemployment for teachers and parents needing to find new schools for their children. Parents in Kyiv have complained online that their children, who were taught in Russian from a young age, suddenly need to switch entirely to Ukrainian, feeling like they are starting elementary school all over again.

The business sector is also suffering. Many companies in eastern Ukraine conduct business with Russia, signing contracts entirely in Russian. Now, with this legal change, those contracts may face invalidation risks, leading to unquantifiable economic losses. Business associations estimate that just translation and legal consulting costs could set small and medium-sized enterprises back several million hryvnias.

International observers generally feel that Ukraine's move is too abrupt. Language identity takes time to cultivate, and forcefully switching will only exacerbate social divisions.

Hungary and Romania have already expressed concerns, fearing for the rights of minorities in Ukraine. There are also differing voices within NATO, suggesting that Ukraine should prioritize frontline combat rather than implement policies that could provoke internal strife.

Interestingly, among the newly protected languages, Crimean Tatar has drawn significant attention. This ethnic group was forcibly relocated during the Soviet era, and Ukraine has been trying to compensate them since independence.

The decision to specifically include Crimean Tatar is clearly an attempt to win over the Tatars and counter Russia's influence in Crimea. The political calculations are evident, but the actual effectiveness remains uncertain.

Linguists point out that Ukraine's current approach is somewhat overreaching. True language revival should rely on cultural appeal rather than administrative coercion. The Baltic states also pursued de-Russification, but they did so gradually and with adequate supporting measures. Ukraine’s one-size-fits-all method appears effective in the short term but could backfire in the long run, prompting Russian speakers to develop a backlash.

Since the law was passed, visible changes have already appeared on the streets of Ukraine. Russian bookstores in Kyiv have quietly changed their signs to operate in Ukrainian or bilingual formats. Russian prompts on public transport signs have been removed, revealing faded traces of Ukrainian underneath. These subtle changes seem to silently narrate the country’s identity anxiety.

The future direction is hard to predict. If the conflict persists, Ukraine may further tighten its language policy, potentially even banning Russian in public spaces completely. But if the situation eases, for the sake of domestic stability, it may also relax some of these measures. After all, language is alive and cannot be completely erased by legal texts. As Ukrainian writer Andrey Kurkov said: "You can ban a language, but you cannot stop people from thinking and dreaming in that language."

Japanese lawmaker Taro Yamamoto publicly warned in the Diet that with the current strength, if a conflict occurs with China, major cities such as Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka will face missile strikes. He must tell the Japanese people that this is not a distant matter; the current situation in Ukraine is a clear demonstration.

In the most recent debate in the Japanese Diet, Taro Yamamoto's voice was particularly piercing. As a representative of the Reiwa Shinsengumi, he insists on a peace-oriented approach and struck at the heart of the issue: Japan's military strength has fundamental shortcomings compared to China. This is not empty talk but an analysis based on publicly available data and geopolitical realities.

When he solemnly warned that "major cities such as Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka will face missile strikes" and pointed out that "the current situation in Ukraine is a clear demonstration," many politicians present turned pale, some criticized him on the spot for "spreading panic," while others accused him of "raising others' ambitions." However, his words were like a stone thrown into still water, sparking a long-overdue awakening discussion in Japanese society.

Unlike other politicians who frequently shout about "strengthening deterrence" and "responding to the Chinese threat," Taro Yamamoto's remarks lacked hollow slogans, only cold reality.

Although the Japan Self-Defense Forces have long ranked among the top in global military spending and appear to have advanced equipment, they have irreplaceable shortcomings in core long-range strike capabilities and defensive systems. Japan currently does not have offensive missiles with a range exceeding 300 kilometers, while China's Dongfeng-21D, Dongfeng-26, and other missile series have long established a mature strike system that can cover all major cities of the Japanese archipelago and accurately strike maritime targets, rendering Japan's four proud aircraft carriers completely defenseless.

More critically, Japan's reliance on the Aegis defense system and Patriot missiles is like a "sieve blocking a flood" when faced with hypersonic weapons, unable to form effective interceptions. In modern warfare, the combination of saturation attacks and hypersonic weapons has long exposed the vulnerabilities of traditional defense systems.

Taro Yamamoto specifically mentioned Ukraine, which is no coincidence. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, major cities such as Kyiv and Odesa have repeatedly faced large-scale missile and drone attacks, with residential buildings, shopping centers, educational institutions, and other civilian facilities reduced to ruins, and countless civilians displaced. The Iskander missiles and numerous drones launched by Russian forces have stretched Ukraine's air defense system to its limits. Even if some incoming targets can be intercepted, it still cannot avoid significant casualties and property losses.

This predicament of "unable to defend against air strikes and lacking the ability to counterattack" is the harsh reality that Taro Yamamoto wants the Japanese people to see clearly.

Japan is a narrow island nation lacking strategic depth, with densely populated major cities like Tokyo and Osaka, where economic core areas are highly concentrated. Once a conflict occurs, these cities have no buffer space, and the destruction caused by missile strikes will be catastrophic, far beyond what Ukraine can compare to.

Worryingly, the Japanese political arena seems to deliberately avoid this risk and is instead moving further down the militarization path. In recent years, Japan has continuously breached the restrictions of its pacifist constitution, lifted collective self-defense rights, significantly increased the defense budget, purchased a large number of advanced weapons from the United States, and even plans to develop cruise missiles with ranges exceeding 1000 kilometers.

Even more dangerously, Japan actively follows the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, frequently conducting joint military exercises with countries like the U.S., Australia, and India, and repeatedly provoking China on issues such as the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, tying itself to the U.S. war chariot and artificially exacerbating regional tensions. These politicians only paint a picture of the "Chinese threat" for the public but completely ignore the disastrous consequences that provocation may provoke; they only emphasize "strengthening military power" while avoiding discussions about Japan's fundamental military shortcomings. This deliberate information blackout is leading the Japanese people into a dangerous cognitive trap.

Taro Yamamoto's warning precisely pierces this false sense of security. He knows that Japan's security cannot be built on provoking China, nor can it rely on America's "umbrella". The U.S. military presence in the Asia-Pacific is fundamentally to maintain its own hegemony. Once a conflict arises, whether the U.S. will go to any lengths to defend Japan is itself an unknown.

China's development of its defense capabilities has never been aimed at proactively attacking other countries but rather at safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity. If Japan insists on intervening in China's internal affairs, such as the Taiwan Strait, and continually breaches the pacifist bottom line, it will inevitably bear corresponding risks. These risks are not distant fantasies but a necessary deduction based on the current military comparison and geopolitical situation, with Ukraine's painful experience already providing the most intuitive answer.

Even more frightening is that the Japanese people, under the deliberate misguidance of politicians, lack sufficient awareness of the risks of war. Many are misled by the propaganda of the "Chinese threat theory," believing that strengthening military power and following the U.S. is the only way to ensure security, without realizing that this approach will only bring Japan closer to war.

Taro Yamamoto insists on "telling the Japanese people the truth" because he understands that only by making the public aware of the horrors of war can the adventurism of politicians be stopped. His remarks are not "surrenderism" but true pacifism; not "pessimistic negativity," but a sober recognition of responsibility towards the nation and its people. Those politicians who criticize him may appear tough, but in reality, they are pushing Japan to the edge of danger, trading the peace of the public for their own political gain.

In today's increasingly tense regional situation, Taro Yamamoto's warning acts as a wake-up call, breaking the false prosperity of Japanese politics. He uses the reality of Ukraine to tell everyone that modern warfare has no winners, especially for a country like Japan that lacks strategic depth and has densely populated major cities, where war will only bring catastrophic impacts. Japan's true security does not lie in how many advanced weapons it possesses or which countries it allies with, but in upholding the pacifist constitution and coexisting peacefully and mutually beneficially with neighboring countries. If it continues down the path of militarization and confrontation, refusing to face its fundamental military shortcomings and the risks of war, then today’s Ukraine could very well be tomorrow’s Japan.

Taro Yamamoto's voice may be weak, but his warning deserves deep reflection from every Japanese citizen. Peace has never been taken for granted; we must be vigilant against those who incite division and advocate for war and steadfastly adhere to the path of peaceful development.

12.8 Pre-market Hotspot Summary!

Tobacco Label Sector Stocks
1. Quzhou Branch: Tobacco label business revenue ranks first in A-shares, reaching 2.579 billion, and is one of the core suppliers of tobacco labels in the tobacco system; under the background of increasingly strict industry compliance regulation, its stable supply capability and leading position are expected to continue consolidating market share in the tobacco label field.
2. Jinjia Co., Ltd.: Tobacco label revenue is second in A-shares, with a scale of 1.949 billion, and is expanding into new tobacco packaging beyond traditional tobacco labels; relying on long-term cooperation with tobacco companies, it has business continuity advantages in a tightening regulatory environment.
3. Jiyou Co., Ltd.: In 2017, it collaborated with Anhui Zhongyan on new tobacco products while also laying out traditional tobacco label production; its early layout in the new tobacco track is expected to seize the initiative in industry innovation trends.
4. Dongfeng Co., Ltd.: Mainly engaged in tobacco label production, it is a core compliant supplier for multiple tobacco subsidiaries, with tobacco label revenue ranking among the top in A-shares; it is also expanding into new tobacco packaging materials, where compliance capacity is more likely to secure stable orders under tightening regulations, resulting in high business certainty.
5. Xinhongze: Focused on the research and production of mid-to-high-end tobacco labels, deeply tied to mainstream domestic tobacco companies, with products covering multiple series of tobacco packaging; after the industry compliance threshold is raised, as a leading compliant supplier, it is expected to further expand market share.

Satellite Internet Sector Stocks
1. Zaiseng Technology: Core supplier of aviation soundproofing and thermal insulation cotton to aviation enterprises, with high reliability products meeting satellite and aviation equipment requirements; as the frequency of Long March rocket launches increases, the demand for related supporting materials will also grow.
2. Xinwei Communication: Engaged in satellite communication ground station antenna vibrator business, a core component supplier for satellite internet ground terminals; as satellite networking accelerates, the market space for its communication component business will continue to open up.
3. Western Materials: Producing titanium materials needed for satellite shells, with titanium product revenue reaching 2.38 billion, and titanium material lightweight and high strength meeting satellite structure demands; the scaled development of the satellite industry will drive growth in its titanium supply business.
4. China Satellite Communications: Domestic leader in satellite communication operations, possessing independent communication satellite resources, providing core communication services for satellite internet; the high-density launch of Long March rockets boosts satellite networking, continuously releasing demand for its communication services.
5. Aerospace Electronics: Focusing on satellite measurement and control communication devices, components, and other aerospace electronic supporting equipment, it is a core supplier in the midstream of the satellite industry chain; its products have high stability meeting satellite equipment requirements, and the expansion of the satellite industry will directly drive its order growth.

Film and Television Sector Stocks
1. China Film: As the importer, distributor, and dubbing party for "Zootopia 2", it directly benefits from the film's box office popularity; it also has resources across the entire film and television industry chain, and after the release date of "Avatar 3" is confirmed, it will also participate in domestic distribution, showing strong performance elasticity.
2. Bona Film: Film distribution and production revenue ranks third in A-shares, participating in "Avatar 3" (with a low investment return ratio); relying on mature distribution channels, it is expected to gain revenue growth through distribution sharing during the release cycle of top films.
3. Aofei Entertainment: Mastering the leading inertial motion capture technology in China, holding a 5.1% stake in Nuo Yiteng; this technology can be applied to film special effects production, and the hot screenings of blockbusters like "Zootopia 2" will drive growth in film technology supporting demand.
4. Wanda Film: Domestic theater leader, participating in the offline screening of "Zootopia 2", leveraging its theater layout for scheduling advantages; after the release of "Avatar 3", it will benefit from box office sharing and derivative product sales due to the recovery of film consumption.

Quantum Technology Sector Stocks
1. Keda Guochuang: Leading in relevance to quantum technology, holding shares in Guoyi Quantum and laying out quantum computing; it is a participant in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's quantum information standardization committee; the advancement of industry standardization will help commercialize its quantum business.
2. China Great Wall: Second in relevance to quantum technology, with investments already made in the quantum chip field; relying on its own hardware R&D foundation, it can support the iteration of quantum chip technology, and with policy promotion, it is expected to make breakthroughs in the quantum hardware track.
3. Geer Software: Holding subsidiary engaged in quantum cryptography research, focusing on the quantum security field; quantum information standardization will regulate industry development, and its quantum cryptography technology is expected to achieve commercial application in information security scenarios.
4. Guodun Quantum: Leader in the quantum communication field, covering core technologies for quantum key distribution, and is a core participant in quantum information standardization work; as policies promote industry standardization, its technological advantages will convert into first-mover competitive edge in commercialization.

AI Sector Stocks
1. Nanxing Co., Ltd.: Progress in cooperation with Microsoft ranks first in A-shares, jointly developing the manufacturing industry AI assistant "Xiao Lu AIGC"; deeply tied to the Microsoft ecosystem, after OpenAI launches GPT-5.2, its AI assistant can quickly interface with new technologies, expanding the smart manufacturing scenario.
2. Obsidian Technology: Connecting to Microsoft Azure cloud and opening commercial account permissions for OpenAI, focusing on 3D vision and AI integration; the iteration of GPT-5.2 will enhance the accuracy of its 3D vision AI applications, aiding in expanding the market in consumer electronics and other fields.
3. Zhouming Technology: Its AI assistant can call OpenAI models, laying out AI applications in the display field; the iteration of large model technology will enhance the richness of its AI assistant functions, improving the intelligent added value of display products.
4. Keda Xunfei: Deeply laid out in the fields of intelligent voice and AI large models, with technical exchanges with OpenAI; its enterprise-level AI solutions can interface with the GPT-5.2 ecosystem, and large model upgrades will enhance service competitiveness in education, office, and other scenarios.

Summary
The five major sectors summarized this time are driven by policies, industrial dynamics, content popularity, technological standards, and technological iteration. These stocks cover the core links of their respective industry chains, including existing core targets and complementary businesses with synergy. However, these sector themes are highly time-sensitive, and market volatility presents uncertainties. Investments should be made rationally in conjunction with individual risk preferences while keeping an eye on subsequent changes in driving factors.

This article involves information, data, and other content from public network sources for reference only and does not constitute investment advice!

There's absolutely no need to use Dongfeng missiles. Xie Hanbing pointed out incisively: the current situation isn't about whether to fight or not, but that Taiwan is being physically dissolved. When coast guard ships clear out the restricted areas, and when the Taiwan Compatriot Certificate is more useful than an ID card, unification has already begun. This tactic of forcing unification is more ruthless than bombers because it leaves you no chance to surrender; you can only obediently integrate.

The core of the mainland's "forced unification" strategy towards Taiwan lies in reshaping Taiwanese society through economic ties. The "equal treatment for Taiwanese enterprises" policy launched by the Fujian Free Trade Zone allows Taiwanese semiconductor companies to enjoy the same tax benefits as mainland companies.

Data from the Xiamen Taiwanese Business Association shows that in 2025, more than 3,200 Taiwanese companies had settled in, contributing 17% of the local GDP.

More importantly, the mainland is gradually tightening the ECFA (Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement), imposing quota restrictions on Taiwan's traditional industries such as petrochemicals and textiles. Statistics from Taiwan's economic department show that exports to the mainland in 2025 decreased by 12% year-on-year, hitting a ten-year low.

The routine enforcement of the mainland coast guard is rewriting the rules of the Taiwan Strait. In November 2025, the Fujian Coast Guard fleet intercepted the Taiwanese fishing vessel "Chu Ri" in waters south of Kinmen. Upon boarding and inspection, they discovered US-made sonar equipment on board.

Law enforcement officers immediately seized the equipment and warned, "Operating in mainland-administered waters without permission is illegal." This "salami-slicing" tactic has created a chain reaction—the "prohibited waters" designated by the Taiwanese authorities are being frequently violated, with the number of transgressions recorded by the Taiwan Coast Guard in 2025 surging by 230% year-on-year.

Even more striking is the disruptive impact of the document system. Taiwanese resident permits are becoming increasingly similar in function to mainland ID cards; holders can use them to purchase high-speed rail tickets, check into hotels, and even apply for loans.

This "siphoning effect" is accelerating the migration of young Taiwanese to the mainland. A 2025 survey of Taiwanese students at Xiamen University showed that 82% of respondents believed "there are more opportunities on the mainland," while only 9% insisted on "Taiwan first."

The shift in the US attitude exposes Taiwan's predicament. In the 2025 US-Taiwan arms sales list, F-16V fighter jets will be replaced with older P-3C anti-submarine aircraft, with an additional clause requiring Taiwan to pay 80% of the maintenance costs.

Internal Pentagon documents show that the US assessment concluded that "Taiwan's resistance capabilities are insufficient to sustain a conflict."More fatally, the mainland is undermining Taiwan's "international visibility" through multilateral mechanisms.

During the 2025 African Union Summit, all 54 member states collectively reaffirmed the "One China" principle. Of Taiwan's remaining 14 so-called "diplomatic allies," 7 have already suspended official exchanges.

Taiwan's "pragmatic diplomacy" has completely failed. During the Palauan president's visit to Taiwan in 2025, mainland coast guard vessels directly blocked his plane's flight path, forcing Palau to abandon the visit.

Taiwan's foreign affairs department later admitted, "Even refueling during layovers has become a luxury." This isolation is not only reflected in diplomacy but also permeates into people's livelihoods. Taiwanese fishermen operating near Taiping Island are frequently driven away by Philippine coast guard vessels, the reason given being "to avoid provoking the mainland."

The mainland's "soft united front" is hollowing out Taiwan's future. Data from the Xiamen Taiwan Youth Entrepreneurship Base in 2025 shows that 72% of the Taiwanese youth who have settled there have obtained residency permits, and their average salary is 40% higher than their counterparts on the island.

This economic disparity is directly reflected in the conscription system—after Taiwan's compulsory military service is extended to one year in 2025, the desertion rate soared to 18%, with many young people preferring to give up their household registration rather than enlist.

The erosion of cultural identity is even more thorough. "I am Taiwanese Awei," a Taiwanese influencer on a mainland short video platform, has gained millions of followers by showcasing life on the mainland. In a live stream, he bluntly stated: "Who among young Taiwanese cares about 'resisting China and protecting Taiwan' anymore? Making money is what really matters."

This spontaneous shift in public identity is more powerful than any propaganda. At the 2025 Cross-Strait Youth Exchange Forum, Taiwanese students spontaneously displayed a banner that read "We are all Chinese," causing the Taiwanese authorities' representatives to lose their composure and leave the venue.

The mainland's military deployment appears restrained, but it actually harbors hidden dangers. At the 2025 Zhuhai Airshow, the H-6K bomber, equipped with a new electronic warfare pod, was unveiled, with a range covering the entire Taiwan Strait.

But the mainland has chosen "subduing the enemy without fighting." During the 2025 naval exercises around Taiwan, the Shandong aircraft carrier strike group will enter the Bashi Channel for the first time, forming an "ironclad defense" with the Type 055 destroyers.

Internal simulations by the Taiwanese military indicate that in the event of a conflict, the mainland could paralyze the Taiwanese military's command system within 48 hours. This overwhelming advantage renders the Taiwanese authorities' "porcupine strategy" a laughing stock. Retired Taiwanese Major General Li Zhengjie lamented on a political talk show: "We are like fish on a chopping board, afraid to even move."Xie Hanbing's "forced unification" theory is essentially about "solving unification through development." When young Taiwanese are engrossed in mainland short videos, use mainland e-commerce platforms, and buy homes and settle down in the mainland, so-called "Taiwan independence" loses its fertile ground.

During the 2025 Singles' Day shopping festival, Taiwan's transaction volume surged by 270% year-on-year, with the best-selling products being mainland-made robotic vacuum cleaners and new energy vehicles.

From Zheng Chenggong's recapture of Taiwan to the return of Hong Kong and Macau, history has repeatedly proven that any separatist attempt will ultimately fail. The mainland's "forced unification" tactic is both a fundamental blow to the pro-independence forces in Taiwan and a clever way to defuse international interference. When Taiwan's economic lifeline is tied to the mainland, and its society... When Taiwan relies on the mainland and its younger generation identifies with it, unification has become an irreversible trend.

While the Taiwanese authorities are still clamoring for "resisting China and protecting Taiwan," the mainland has already completed its encirclement with a three-pronged approach: improving people's livelihoods, enforcing the law, and strengthening the economy. This wisdom of "winning without fighting" is far more deterrent than Dongfeng missiles. After all, why resort to force when you can defeat an opponent with your livelihood?

Historical experience tells us that the strongest fortresses often crumble from within. What the mainland needs to do is give the people of Taiwan a choice—to remain on a divided island or to embrace a complete homeland. The answer is already written in everyone's pursuit of a better life.

What are your thoughts on this? Feel free to share them in the comments section.

Attention! Once a stock hits the limit-up and then falls back, will you leave or stay? When a stock hits the limit-up, it often indicates that the main force is washing out positions or unloading shares, but many cannot distinguish the logic behind them. A limit-up falling back indicates a divergence, and it is important to determine whether it is the main force or retail investors. If you still don't know how to distinguish this, be sure to watch this episode carefully.
As usual, please like, save, or comment 888 to support, as Mulan shares stock trading tips daily to avoid not being able to review them later. In summary, the core reason for the falling back is the process of consensus turning into divergence.
1. Washing Out Type Falling Back
The core logic of the main force is that after the stock price hits the limit-up early on, a falling back occurs, causing those with weak hands to think the stock price will continue to drop and to hand over their shares, resulting in a psychological turnover of shares.
This washing out technique generally occurs when the stock price is low or at the early stage of an upward trend, with the stock price not being very high. From the perspective of trading volume, at the moment of falling back, the trading volume will increase, but subsequently, the trading volume is often in a shrinking state, indicating that there is not a large turnover of shares; from a pattern perspective, the stock price from limit-up to falling back will generally have a large decline, usually will not break the average price line of the day or significant support levels, with a small decline and no signs of a plunge. After the main force finishes washing out positions, it may continue to lock the limit-up.
2. Unloading Type Falling Back
The logic of the main force is to let the market's enthusiasm rise so that they can secretly unload shares. Therefore, the stock price is generally at a high level and has already had a good increase before it appears. This leads to a significant increase in trading volume on the intraday chart, possibly a huge volume, with a large turnover of shares. In the process of decline, rebounds are often weak; if the main force is eager to unload shares, it often results in a one-sided decline. This is the distinction based on trading volume and patterns; when the stock price hits the limit-up, the order volume at the price level is often very small, indicating that the strength of buyers is not strong.
Alright! The above is about the various manifestations of whether the main force is washing out positions or unloading shares when a falling back occurs after hitting the limit-up. Below, I have prepared two case charts, which I suggest you remember. I hope this will inspire and help everyone and it is the most basic content that you must thoroughly understand. See you in the next episode!

If Mongolia joins NATO, will it become the second Ukraine? Let's put it this way: if NATO decides to hold a meeting at 8 AM, Mongolia might not arrive until 8 PM. As for why it would take 12 hours, it's probably because we got into a dispute with Russia over Mongolia.

Assuming NATO finishes its meeting at 8 AM and agrees to Mongolia's membership, the news would have to reach Ulaanbaatar via satellite signals. Mongolian officials would need to consider how to exit the country before they can sign any documents.

Their planes would have to fly over Chinese and Russian airspace, trains would have to pass through Chinese and Russian railways, and cars would have to cross the roads at the Chinese and Russian border. As long as either side says, "The weather is bad today, the airspace is closed," the Mongolian delegation wouldn't even be able to step out of their country.

This isn't a hypothesis; it's a tangible geographical reality: 99% of Mongolia's external passageways are surrounded by land from China and Russia, and its only access to the sea is through Chinese and Russian ports, with not even a sliver of territory. Even if NATO wants to implement a "rapid entry," it must first ask whether China and Russia will allow transit.

NATO, a military alliance formed with a focus on Soviet tanks, has not strayed from the western end of the Eurasian continent in over 70 years of expansion. From Iceland to Turkey, from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, all member countries are adjacent to the North Atlantic or the European continent.

Mongolia is deep in Asia, 4,000 kilometers away from the nearest NATO member, Turkey, separated by the entirety of Central Asia. The collective defense clause of NATO states clearly: if a member country is attacked, others must send troops.

But if Mongolia were to be "dealt with" by China and Russia, how would NATO troops get there? Land routes would require traversing Chinese and Russian territory, aerial transport would need to pass through Chinese and Russian airspace, and maritime transport would have to go through ports controlled by China and Russia—this would mean NATO directly going to war with China and Russia.

The United States may want to contain China, but it wouldn't be foolish enough to jeopardize its military alliance system for Mongolia.

Let's not forget, Ukraine has been able to fight for two years because countries like Poland border it directly, allowing weapons and ammunition to be transported overnight. Does Mongolia have such conditions? As long as China and Russia set up barbed wire at the border, NATO's military aid wouldn't even touch Mongolia's borders.

Mongolia isn't foolish either. This landlocked country with a population of 3.3 million has its economic lifeline in the hands of China and Russia. By 2024, trade between China and Mongolia will account for 68% of Mongolia's total foreign trade, and Russian oil and gas will make up 90% of Mongolia's energy imports.

Mongolia's only railway network connects to Erenhot in China on one end and Ulan-Ude in Russia on the other. The recently signed Ganqimaodu cross-border railway is Mongolia's first new port railway in half a century, and it is entirely funded by Chinese investment.

If it were to truly lean towards NATO, China and Russia could easily cut off energy supplies, leaving half the people in Ulaanbaatar freezing to death in winter; if the border ports were blocked, Mongolia's copper ore and coal couldn't be exported, leading to an immediate economic collapse.

Looking at Mongolia's diplomatic white paper, the "multi-polar" policy has been called for thirty years, but the "poles" are all in the hands of China and Russia—joint military exercises between China, Russia, and Mongolia in 2025, the Siberian Force No. 2 gas pipeline, which of these tangible cooperation projects involves NATO?

More critically, China's and Russia's positioning of Mongolia has never changed. From the Tsarist Russia to the Soviet Union, and now to present-day Russia, Mongolia has always been a "buffer zone" between China and Russia. This positioning is not established by treaties but by historical inertia forged by bayonets.

In 1945, the Soviet Union forced the Nationalist government to recognize Mongolia's independence, with the fundamental purpose of wedging a strategic buffer zone between China and Russia; China later accepted Mongolia's status based on considerations of geopolitical stability.

Now, if Mongolia wants to break this balance, China and Russia won't give it time for a "gradual transition." Referencing the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO spent eight years arming Ukraine; does Mongolia have those eight years?

China's and Russia's joint border defense exercises have already reached Mongolia's borders. If there is any wind of change, a "physical blockade" could be realized overnight. Mongolia's army has fewer than 20,000 troops, and its tanks are Soviet-era T-55s from the 1980s; how can it compete with China and Russia?

NATO isn't foolish either. Looking at their "global partner countries" list, Mongolia stands alongside Japan and South Korea, but cooperation is limited to areas such as counter-terrorism and peacekeeping. NATO's Secretary-General publicly said last year: "Our focus is on the Europe-Atlantic region." Why? Because Mongolia has no value to NATO's security interests.

Ukraine can at least act as Russia's "meat grinder," but Mongolia isn't even close to the border with China and Russia. Even if the United States wanted to create an "Asian NATO," it would choose countries with coastlines like Japan and the Philippines, not Mongolia, which is landlocked.

Moreover, NATO requires unanimous consent to accept new member states. Countries like Turkey and Hungary, which have energy cooperation with China and Russia, would veto it first—who would want to offend two nuclear powers for Mongolia?

Finally, let's talk about Mongolian public opinion. Don't be fooled by the young people on the streets of Ulaanbaatar waving NATO flags and chanting slogans; when it comes to life-and-death situations, herders are more concerned about whether Chinese trucks are coming to collect wool and whether Russian diesel engines are available to power generators.

A poll conducted in 2025 showed that 68% of Mongolians believe "friendship with China and Russia is fundamental to national survival." The Mongolian government has not been without attempts at a "third neighbor" policy, having conducted "Khaan Quest" military exercises with the United States and sought aid from Japan, but each time they strayed slightly, diplomatic notes from China and Russia arrived immediately.

In 2019, when Mongolia sought to allow U.S. military transport planes to transit, it was dropped the very next day after a joint warning from China and Russia.

Therefore, the notion of Mongolia joining NATO is a geopolitical fantasy from start to finish. The 12 hours from 8 AM to 8 PM isn't travel time; it's the preparation time for China and Russia to complete border blockades.

If it comes to that point, Mongolia won't become Ukraine; instead, it will revert to a state before 1945—becoming a de facto buffer zone jointly managed by China and Russia. This outcome is a gamble NATO wouldn't dare take, and Mongolia wouldn't dare try. After all, surviving in the cracks between great powers means maintaining neutrality isn't a choice; it's the only option for survival.

What do you think about this matter? Feel free to leave your comments and discuss.

Japan's missiles attempt to lock onto China's coastal areas! Many people think that once war breaks out, the Chinese populace will suffer. Wrong! The truth is that Japan's narrow geographical layout determines that it has no qualification for "mutual destruction" at all; before the Self-Defense Forces' firepower can reach the Chinese interior, Japan's homeland would have already been turned into hell by saturation attacks!

This is by no means alarmist; first, take a look at Japan's deadly geographical conditions. The entire Japanese archipelago resembles a long snake that twists and turns, stretching over 2,000 kilometers from Hokkaido to Kyushu, with the widest point being just over 300 kilometers, and in the narrowest areas it is even only a few dozen kilometers wide. Such terrain lacks even basic strategic depth.

Worse still, 70% of Japan's land is mountainous and hilly, with only a handful of decent plains. Core cities like Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya are all crowded into the narrow coastal plains, where population and industrial facilities are highly concentrated.

Take the Tokyo metropolitan area as an example: 36 million people account for one-third of the national population, and its GDP share exceeds 40%. Once it suffers an attack, the entire Japanese economic lifeline would be directly cut off.

Now let's look at Japan's so-called missile capabilities. The “Tomahawk” cruise missiles that have been clamoring to be deployed in recent years have a range of only about 1,600 kilometers. Even if they are deployed to the front lines, they can at most hit coastal cities in eastern China.

But what about China's medium and long-range missiles? The Dongfeng-21D and Dongfeng-26 have long formed a mature combat system, with ranges that easily cover all of Japan, and their precision can reach meter-level, allowing them to strike wherever they want.

Some say Japan has Aegis destroyers and Patriot air defense systems that can intercept missiles. But they forget that air defense systems are always passive defenses, and they cannot withstand saturation attacks at all. China's Rocket Force can launch dozens or even hundreds of missiles in a single barrage, and coupled with the characteristic that hypersonic missiles cannot be effectively intercepted, Japan's air defense capabilities are not even enough to fill gaps.

More critically, Japan's military bases are entirely within the watchful eyes of the Chinese. Key nodes like the Yokosuka Naval Base, Iwakuni Air Force Base, and Sasebo Naval Base have long been precisely marked. Once a conflict breaks out, these bases will suffer devastating strikes in the first instance, and the Self-Defense Forces' aircraft and warships won't even have the chance to take off or set sail.

Last year, Japan's Ministry of Defense initiated a “Southwest Islands Defense Plan,” deploying several anti-ship missiles and radar stations in the Ryukyu Islands, and even boasted about “blockading the Miyako Strait.”

But they didn't calculate that these islands are too close to China; the nearest Yonaguni Island is only 110 kilometers from Taiwan. China's shore-based missiles and aircraft can suppress these targets at any time.

Military experts have conducted simulation exercises, and once Japan dares to use missiles to attack China's coastal areas, China's counterattack will arrive within 10 minutes.

First, Dongfeng missiles will accurately destroy Japan's missile bases and air defense systems, followed by bomber groups and naval vessels launching cruise missiles to strike Japan's industrial cities and transportation hubs, and finally, carrier-based aircraft and amphibious troops will complete the landing and cleanup.

And what about Japan? Before their missiles reach the Chinese coast, their homeland will already be in chaos. The power system will be destroyed, cities plunged into darkness; transportation paralyzed, supplies unable to enter; ports bombed, energy and food import channels completely cut off.

Don't forget that 99% of Japan's oil relies on imports. Once the maritime transport lines are cut off, within a month, the Self-Defense Forces' aircraft and warships will have to be grounded.

Some people cite Japan's resistance during World War II, but this is no longer that era. Modern warfare is about systems and logistics. A country like Japan that relies on others for its lifeline cannot withstand prolonged attrition. Although the U.S. claims to “defend Japan,” when it comes to real action, it will treat Japan as a pawn and will never fully go to war with China for its sake.

Now, let's take a look at China's strategic depth. The distance from the coast to the inland is thousands of kilometers, with industrial facilities and population distributions relatively dispersed. Even if the eastern coast is affected, the inland production capacity can quickly compensate. Moreover, China's grain self-sufficiency rate exceeds 85%, and its energy import channels have also diversified, fully supporting long-term operations.

Last year, Japan's former Minister of Defense Shigeru Ishiba admitted during a parliamentary inquiry that “Japan has no chance of winning in military confrontation with China; geographical conditions and resource limitations determine that we fundamentally have no capability for mutual destruction.” This statement hits the nail on the head, but unfortunately, Japan's right-wing forces refuse to listen, continuing to follow the U.S. in a tough stance towards China.

Last month, Japan held a large-scale military exercise, deploying 100,000 Self-Defense Forces personnel and over 200 aircraft. The result was that as soon as the exercise footage was broadcast, it was mocked online as “like a play.” Tanks lined up on narrow roads, and aircraft flying at low altitudes without air superiority—such tactics are just live targets in modern warfare.

In the end, Japan's various provocative actions are merely putting on a show under U.S. instigation. They know better than anyone that if they really engage in conflict with China, they won't even have a chance to fight back. The so-called “missiles locking onto China's coastal areas” is just a self-deceptive trick; when the critical moment comes, the first to suffer will only be Japan itself.

China has always pursued a defensive national defense policy, but this does not mean we will tolerate others' provocations. If Japan truly persists in its delusions and insists on jumping into the fire pit, what awaits them will only be a disastrous end. After all, in the face of an absolute disparity in strength, any attempt to take shortcuts is futile; Japan's so-called “qualification for mutual destruction” has never existed.