Will there be a big surprise today? Last Friday's strong bullish candle broke the recent dull market. It gave investors hope, and the news over the weekend was also positive, although the US stock market had some twists, Chinese concept stocks rose by 1.29%. Can we continue to rebound today with the tailwind?

First, let's talk about the favorable policies that add fuel to the fire:

The policy is favorable: The biggest highlight over the weekend was the statement from the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing. He clearly proposed to 'moderately expand the capital space and leverage limits for brokers,' promoting brokers 'to shift from price competition to value competition.' This means that:

Brokers can 'play' with more money: With the relaxation of capital and leverage space, theoretically, brokers can conduct more business (such as proprietary trading, market making, derivatives), and even their ability to borrow money to invest in stocks has increased. This presents a potential increase in market liquidity expectations.

The benefit is most direct for leading brokers: Large leading brokers, with strong financial strength and relatively standardized risk control, are more likely to enjoy policy dividends. Guotai Junan declared, 'The Chinese stock market will enter a year-end offensive, reaching new highs.' It feels somewhat optimistic, but it also reflects a positive expectation of policy beneficiaries. In the long run, this is indeed expected to guide the industry to be healthier and focus more on professional services, rather than the past pure commission price wars.

Boosting market confidence: This directly targets the core of the financial sector—brokers. The policy support intention is clear, sending positive policy signals to market participants, especially institutional investors. Last Friday, brokers and insurance led the index to break through 3900 points, and if brokers continue to be strong today, at least the index will rise easily.

Chinese concept stocks performed positively: Last Friday, although the overall US stock market fluctuated, Chinese concept stocks rose against the trend by over 1%, providing some positive support to related sectors in the A-share market today (such as technology stocks and internet concepts under Hong Kong Stock Connect) and overall foreign capital sentiment.

Now, let’s take a look at the 'road ahead' and 'potential pitfalls':

Year-end effects show significant divergence: This is crucial! Most investors, due to year-end capital recovery, settlement, ranking battles, and other factors, tend to prefer 'cashing in,' leaning towards a conservative style. There is widespread concern that the year-end capital situation will not support a significant market rise. This sharply contrasts with the optimistic calls from leading brokers for a 'year-end market.' This means that while market confidence may be boosted, it may not necessarily form a consistent, sustained buying force, and capital may be more 'short and quick' or concentrated in a few sectors.

Volume is the 'lifeline': Last Friday's surge was 'on volume,' indicating that real money entered the market. But whether it can continue to increase in volume today and even this week is the key! The emotional impulse brought by favorable policies, if not supported by sustained capital inflow, is like fireworks—brilliant but short-lived. We need to keep a close eye on the trading volume. If there’s a surge today but the volume doesn’t follow, can the volume increase by over 10% in half an hour? If it doesn't increase, we need to be wary of a pullback risk.

Beware of the curse of 'lifting the index while individual stocks fall': The direct beneficiaries of favorable policies are large financial institutions (brokers, banks, insurance), especially brokers. If today’s funds only recognize these large players, they can indeed lift the index (such as the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300), even making it look rosy. But other small and mid-cap stocks and theme stocks may suffer because the limited funds are absorbed by the large-cap stocks. The result is seeing the index rise while your account may still be losing money; this kind of '80-20 division' or even '90-10 division' is the most frustrating. Therefore, today we should not only look at whether the major index is in the red but also compare the number of stocks that are rising versus those that are falling, and observe the overall profitability effect in the market.

Where are the 'landmines' this week? There are several important time points this week:

Intensive new stock subscriptions: 5 new stocks will somewhat divert market funds; although the impact is limited, it acts as a small siphon when the capital situation is already delicate.

Economic data release (Wednesday): The CPI and PPI for November. This relates to the market's judgment on the strength of the domestic economic recovery and deflationary pressures. The quality of the data directly affects expectations for the economic fundamentals.

Federal Reserve meeting (Thursday): Although the market expects a high probability of an interest rate cut in December at 86.2%, as long as the shoe hasn’t dropped, there exists a 'expectation gap' risk (for example, if the Fed hints at cutting too early? Or simply does not act this time?). As the meeting approaches (the second half of this week), especially if there’s a surge today, some funds may become cautious and choose to wait for the Fed's outcome.

Comprehensive judgment: A surge during the opening is highly likely: The weekend's favorable policy + the lingering effect of last Friday's surge + good performance of Chinese concept stocks suggest that today the A-shares are likely to open high, and may even continue to push higher in the morning. Broker stocks should lead the rise.

The key lies in 'volume' and 'structure': If within half an hour to an hour after the opening the volume is very strong (significantly greater than last Friday during the same period), and the number of rising stocks significantly exceeds the number of falling stocks, with the market's hot spots spreading (not just financial stocks rising, but also technology, consumer, etc. showing performance), then the market is expected to be healthier and more sustainable.

If after a high opening the volume quickly shrinks, or only a few large-cap stocks (especially financial stocks) are rising while most stocks are falling or even plummeting, then we must be very careful! This is a typical 'lifting the index while individual stocks fall' scenario, which can easily trigger a high-to-low reversal, which may occur in the afternoon or tomorrow. It is especially important to note that if broker stocks surge but then fall sharply, it will have a huge impact on market sentiment.

The performance of financial stocks (especially brokers) is a key barometer, but we must also be wary of them dancing solo and causing market blood loss.

To summarize: Today, the market is likely to have the momentum to push higher with the 'tailwind' from the weekend. But the key lies in two points: first, whether the volume can truly sustain an increase (this is the thermometer of sustainability), and second, whether the market structure is healthy (whether the profitability effect is widespread). We must be particularly wary of a false prosperity where only large-cap stocks perform while individual stocks languish. In terms of operation, if you have benefiting stocks like brokers, you can observe their strength and sustainability; those looking to chase highs must be cautious and not let emotions cloud their judgment. Closely monitor the flow of funds and differentiation during today’s trading; this is more important than simply looking at index fluctuations. There are still data and the Federal Reserve meeting later this week, and uncertainty remains, so market sentiment may fluctuate. Maintain a level of clarity, don’t get too carried away!