Weekly Outlook: The Federal Reserve may cut rates by 25 basis points, but there are internal disagreements, making policy forward guidance crucial. Gold may experience significant fluctuations; if it breaks above $4240, it could rise to $4300, while a drop below $4200 may test $4180 and $4160. The market believes the only direction for interest rates is downward.
In terms of other central banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia remains hawkish, focusing on inflation and the labor market; the Bank of Canada is expected to keep interest rates unchanged; the Swiss National Bank still tends to avoid implementing negative interest rates.
The impact of U.S. economic data remains unclear, and the market is calm ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, stemming from confidence in the 'Fed put' and economic resilience, but caution is warranted as hawkish rate cuts or worsening employment may trigger volatility. Rate cut expectations have been priced in by the market, and Powell's comments on the interest rate path for 2026 are more critical. If a dovish signal is released, it may suggest an economic slowdown beyond expectations.
The company's financial report or alleviation of investors' concerns about the prospects in areas such as AI, providing more details on orders and capital expenditures.
