K哥的投资笔记
BTC长期持有者，七年区块链经验，穿越牛熊，链上数据与风控笔记分享，独创合约短线超强AI量化模型 。
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Powell is expected to achieve a "three consecutive cuts", but the surge in opposing votes poses a hidden danger for his successor!
The last meeting of this year is expected to see three opposing votes again.
This casts a shadow over the next chairperson's ability to unify 18 colleagues.
The debate over neutral interest rates remains the core disagreement—policymakers cannot reach a consensus on its specific value, leading to a continuous increase in opposing votes.
Powell is trying to push more members towards his position.
If three opposing votes appear in December, it will be the fourth consecutive meeting with at least one dissent; during this period, the total number of opposing votes will reach 8, equal to the total number of opposing votes in the previous 47 meetings.
As Trump is about to nominate a new Federal Reserve chair, frequent and substantial opposing votes may become the norm.
Many colleagues who may work with Hasset in the future are not fully convinced by the current policy direction.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this week may be presented in a hawkish manner.
#美联储降息
The last meeting of this year is expected to see three opposing votes again.
This casts a shadow over the next chairperson's ability to unify 18 colleagues.
The debate over neutral interest rates remains the core disagreement—policymakers cannot reach a consensus on its specific value, leading to a continuous increase in opposing votes.
Powell is trying to push more members towards his position.
If three opposing votes appear in December, it will be the fourth consecutive meeting with at least one dissent; during this period, the total number of opposing votes will reach 8, equal to the total number of opposing votes in the previous 47 meetings.
As Trump is about to nominate a new Federal Reserve chair, frequent and substantial opposing votes may become the norm.
Many colleagues who may work with Hasset in the future are not fully convinced by the current policy direction.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this week may be presented in a hawkish manner.
#美联储降息
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【Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut Likely Decided Market Focus on Voting Discrepancies and Powell's Remarks】
This week's Federal Reserve meeting is expected to be one of the most controversial in years, with investors focusing on how significant the disagreements among decision-makers about interest rate cuts are, as well as the signals Powell sends about the future path. Janus Henderson believes that, in the long term, the December meeting will have little impact on the market. There may be some volatility in the short term, but actions in the first half of 2026 are more important than those in December. Wilmington Trust believes that the market has largely priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and what is truly critical is the Fed's policy guidance. They are expected to be very cautious, emphasizing that it depends on economic data. Some observers believe that the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is not as high as the market suggests; they are more concerned about Powell's statements and the proximity of policy votes. Nomura economists point out that nothing is certain yet, and the market has underestimated the risk of the Fed choosing not to cut rates in December. It will be very interesting to see how many dissenting votes there are if a rate cut decision is made. With the rotation of four regional Fed presidents, their positions will reveal how much independence they intend to maintain and how much pressure they will exert on the Federal Reserve.
#美联储降息预期升温
This week's Federal Reserve meeting is expected to be one of the most controversial in years, with investors focusing on how significant the disagreements among decision-makers about interest rate cuts are, as well as the signals Powell sends about the future path. Janus Henderson believes that, in the long term, the December meeting will have little impact on the market. There may be some volatility in the short term, but actions in the first half of 2026 are more important than those in December. Wilmington Trust believes that the market has largely priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and what is truly critical is the Fed's policy guidance. They are expected to be very cautious, emphasizing that it depends on economic data. Some observers believe that the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is not as high as the market suggests; they are more concerned about Powell's statements and the proximity of policy votes. Nomura economists point out that nothing is certain yet, and the market has underestimated the risk of the Fed choosing not to cut rates in December. It will be very interesting to see how many dissenting votes there are if a rate cut decision is made. With the rotation of four regional Fed presidents, their positions will reveal how much independence they intend to maintain and how much pressure they will exert on the Federal Reserve.
#美联储降息预期升温
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Is Powell's 'hawk' not moving this time?
U.S. Bank: The Federal Reserve faces its biggest internal disagreements in years! Is Powell's 'hawk' not moving this time?
The key is how Powell will describe the prospect of further easing next month.
Powell is facing the most serious divisions within the committee in years.
Therefore, U.S. Bank questions whether Powell can easily achieve the so-called 'hawkish rate cut'—especially with a large amount of key data delayed due to government shutdown impacts being released between the two meetings.
"It will be very difficult for Powell to send a convincing hawkish signal at the press conference."
He is expected to emphasize that interest rates are now close to neutral levels after this week's rate cut, so any additional easing will depend on substantial deterioration in the labor market, rather than purely based on risk management.
This expectation may also increase the likelihood of more dissenting votes at the December meeting.
#美联储何时降息？ #美联储重启降息步伐
U.S. Bank: The Federal Reserve faces its biggest internal disagreements in years! Is Powell's 'hawk' not moving this time?
The key is how Powell will describe the prospect of further easing next month.
Powell is facing the most serious divisions within the committee in years.
Therefore, U.S. Bank questions whether Powell can easily achieve the so-called 'hawkish rate cut'—especially with a large amount of key data delayed due to government shutdown impacts being released between the two meetings.
"It will be very difficult for Powell to send a convincing hawkish signal at the press conference."
He is expected to emphasize that interest rates are now close to neutral levels after this week's rate cut, so any additional easing will depend on substantial deterioration in the labor market, rather than purely based on risk management.
This expectation may also increase the likelihood of more dissenting votes at the December meeting.
#美联储何时降息？ #美联储重启降息步伐
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The Federal Reserve's focus this week is not on interest rate cuts
but rather on the adjustment direction of its $6.5 trillion balance sheet. Behind this are two parallel monetary policies: one influences the wealth effect of the 'asset-rich' class through balance sheet operations, while the other is an interest rate policy aimed at the general public. The former may have a greater actual driving force in the current market.
Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may announce the purchase of short-term Treasury bills at a rate of about $45 billion per month starting in January next year, as part of reserve management. Subsequently, in the first or second quarter of next year, the pace may slow to a purchase scale of $15-20 billion per month. Any related statements will be crucial.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #比特币VS代币化黄金
but rather on the adjustment direction of its $6.5 trillion balance sheet. Behind this are two parallel monetary policies: one influences the wealth effect of the 'asset-rich' class through balance sheet operations, while the other is an interest rate policy aimed at the general public. The former may have a greater actual driving force in the current market.
Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may announce the purchase of short-term Treasury bills at a rate of about $45 billion per month starting in January next year, as part of reserve management. Subsequently, in the first or second quarter of next year, the pace may slow to a purchase scale of $15-20 billion per month. Any related statements will be crucial.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #比特币VS代币化黄金
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December 8, 2025 Financial Breakfast
The U.S. core PCE year-on-year unexpectedly fell in September, indicating a moderation in inflationary pressures. As a result, spot silver prices hit a high of $59 for the first time.
In terms of economic outlook, Bessemer predicts a 3% GDP growth for the U.S. At the same time, geopolitical dynamics are also under scrutiny: Hamas has expressed a willingness to discuss disarmament within the framework of Palestinian statehood.
#美联储何时降息？
The U.S. core PCE year-on-year unexpectedly fell in September, indicating a moderation in inflationary pressures. As a result, spot silver prices hit a high of $59 for the first time.
In terms of economic outlook, Bessemer predicts a 3% GDP growth for the U.S. At the same time, geopolitical dynamics are also under scrutiny: Hamas has expressed a willingness to discuss disarmament within the framework of Palestinian statehood.
#美联储何时降息？
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The bond market ignores the Federal Reserve's rate cuts
Presenting a 'rebellious' trend, Wall Street is in heated debate over this. Optimists see it as a sign of confidence that the economy can avoid recession; neutral views consider it a return to pre-2008 norms; while 'bond vigilantes' worry about the market losing faith in the scale of U.S. Treasury debt.
The deeper reason lies in: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts while inflation is still above the 2% target, causing traders to worry that this will fuel inflation and push up yields. Meanwhile, the rate hikes post-pandemic have already been priced in by the market, weakening the actual impact of rate cuts. Additionally, if rate cuts strengthen expectations for economic growth, they may instead drive yields higher.
The deeper reason lies in: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts while inflation is still above the 2% target, causing traders to worry that this will fuel inflation and push up yields. Meanwhile, the rate hikes post-pandemic have already been priced in by the market, weakening the actual impact of rate cuts. Additionally, if rate cuts strengthen expectations for economic growth, they may instead drive yields higher.
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Federal Reserve Rate Cut
Weekly Outlook: The Federal Reserve may cut rates by 25 basis points, but there are internal disagreements, making policy forward guidance crucial. Gold may experience significant fluctuations; if it breaks above $4240, it could rise to $4300, while a drop below $4200 may test $4180 and $4160. The market believes the only direction for interest rates is downward.
In terms of other central banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia remains hawkish, focusing on inflation and the labor market; the Bank of Canada is expected to keep interest rates unchanged; the Swiss National Bank still tends to avoid implementing negative interest rates.
The impact of U.S. economic data remains unclear, and the market is calm ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, stemming from confidence in the 'Fed put' and economic resilience, but caution is warranted as hawkish rate cuts or worsening employment may trigger volatility. Rate cut expectations have been priced in by the market, and Powell's comments on the interest rate path for 2026 are more critical. If a dovish signal is released, it may suggest an economic slowdown beyond expectations.
In terms of other central banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia remains hawkish, focusing on inflation and the labor market; the Bank of Canada is expected to keep interest rates unchanged; the Swiss National Bank still tends to avoid implementing negative interest rates.
The impact of U.S. economic data remains unclear, and the market is calm ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, stemming from confidence in the 'Fed put' and economic resilience, but caution is warranted as hawkish rate cuts or worsening employment may trigger volatility. Rate cut expectations have been priced in by the market, and Powell's comments on the interest rate path for 2026 are more critical. If a dovish signal is released, it may suggest an economic slowdown beyond expectations.
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Follow me to see how this small goal is achieved or fails 👇
"Challenge to grow 500U to 5000U in the crypto world, my tenfold plan officially starts!"
Current position: 500 USDT
Target position: 5000 USDT
Core strategy: Focus on strong coin fluctuations + small position to seize early trend opportunities
Stage strategy:
1. 400U for mainstream coins (like BTC/ETH) range fluctuations, strictly set stop-loss;
2. 80U ambush 1-2 low market cap potential track coins (AI, Depin, RWA, etc.);
3. 20U as flexible capital to respond to sudden opportunities or to increase positions.
Daily updates on operation records and profit and loss details, fully transparent. No coin recommendations, no calls, just sharing my real trading logic and reviews.
Current position: 500 USDT
Target position: 5000 USDT
Core strategy: Focus on strong coin fluctuations + small position to seize early trend opportunities
Stage strategy:
1. 400U for mainstream coins (like BTC/ETH) range fluctuations, strictly set stop-loss;
2. 80U ambush 1-2 low market cap potential track coins (AI, Depin, RWA, etc.);
3. 20U as flexible capital to respond to sudden opportunities or to increase positions.
Daily updates on operation records and profit and loss details, fully transparent. No coin recommendations, no calls, just sharing my real trading logic and reviews.
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12.7 Afternoon Personal Forecast
The price is at 89697, having retreated from the high of 90257 into consolidation. The 1-hour chart shows a long upper shadow and a consolidation candlestick, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears, with an unclear direction. 88870 forms a short-term support, but there is significant selling pressure above the 90000 level.
From a technical perspective, the KDJ low-level golden cross suggests a possibility of a short-term rebound, but it remains in a weak zone below 50; the MACD bearish momentum is weakening, but the dual-line structure has not yet reversed the mid-term bearish trend. Overall, it is viewed as a consolidation repair, with key support focused on the 89142-88870 range, and resistance at 90000-90257. If it stabilizes at the Bollinger middle track 89507, a slight rebound may be possible with the KDJ golden cross; otherwise, there is still a risk of further decline.
In terms of operations, it is recommended to buy lightly in the 88535-88032 range on a pullback, targeting 90020-91012. The above is personal advice for reference only; specific operations should be based on actual market conditions.
#比特币VS代币化黄金 #ETH走势分析
The price is at 89697, having retreated from the high of 90257 into consolidation. The 1-hour chart shows a long upper shadow and a consolidation candlestick, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears, with an unclear direction. 88870 forms a short-term support, but there is significant selling pressure above the 90000 level.
From a technical perspective, the KDJ low-level golden cross suggests a possibility of a short-term rebound, but it remains in a weak zone below 50; the MACD bearish momentum is weakening, but the dual-line structure has not yet reversed the mid-term bearish trend. Overall, it is viewed as a consolidation repair, with key support focused on the 89142-88870 range, and resistance at 90000-90257. If it stabilizes at the Bollinger middle track 89507, a slight rebound may be possible with the KDJ golden cross; otherwise, there is still a risk of further decline.
In terms of operations, it is recommended to buy lightly in the 88535-88032 range on a pullback, targeting 90020-91012. The above is personal advice for reference only; specific operations should be based on actual market conditions.
#比特币VS代币化黄金 #ETH走势分析
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Recently, BTC and ETH have significantly corrected from their yearly highs, entering a phase of consolidation and facing downward pressure due to changes in macro liquidity expectations.
The market logic and rhythm of the two differ:
BTC has corrected approximately 29% from its October high, fluctuating in the range of $85,000 to $95,000. As a core asset, its performance is relatively "resilient," significantly influenced by macro interest rate policies, but its correlation with traditional stock markets has decreased.
ETH has corrected approximately 38% from its August high, with greater volatility. As a "barometer" for altcoins, its trend is closely related to DeFi and other ecological applications, driven more by its own ecological development.
Recently, after a sharp drop in mid to late November, both have rebounded in sync, with ETH's rebound being more pronounced. However, since the beginning of December, the market has once again come under pressure and retreated.
For future operations, attention can be given to the following points:
1. Key positions: Closely observe BTC's performance around the key support area of $85,000-$90,000 and ETH's around $2,900-$3,000.
2. Gradual deployment: If signs of stabilization appear near the support levels, consider buying in batches and set clear stop-losses.
3. Watch for rotation: Pay attention to whether funds will rotate back from BTC to ETH; a strengthening ETH/BTC exchange rate is often a precursor to altcoin markets.
4. Tracking macro: Focus on macro events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, as they directly affect market liquidity.
#比特币VS代币化黄金 #ETH走势分析
The market logic and rhythm of the two differ:
BTC has corrected approximately 29% from its October high, fluctuating in the range of $85,000 to $95,000. As a core asset, its performance is relatively "resilient," significantly influenced by macro interest rate policies, but its correlation with traditional stock markets has decreased.
ETH has corrected approximately 38% from its August high, with greater volatility. As a "barometer" for altcoins, its trend is closely related to DeFi and other ecological applications, driven more by its own ecological development.
Recently, after a sharp drop in mid to late November, both have rebounded in sync, with ETH's rebound being more pronounced. However, since the beginning of December, the market has once again come under pressure and retreated.
For future operations, attention can be given to the following points:
1. Key positions: Closely observe BTC's performance around the key support area of $85,000-$90,000 and ETH's around $2,900-$3,000.
2. Gradual deployment: If signs of stabilization appear near the support levels, consider buying in batches and set clear stop-losses.
3. Watch for rotation: Pay attention to whether funds will rotate back from BTC to ETH; a strengthening ETH/BTC exchange rate is often a precursor to altcoin markets.
4. Tracking macro: Focus on macro events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, as they directly affect market liquidity.
#比特币VS代币化黄金 #ETH走势分析
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December 6 Market Analysis
The market has entered a rebound repair phase after experiencing a waterfall decline. The four-hour level shows that the price is under pressure near the lower Bollinger Band, with the middle and lower bands diverging downwards. The MACD is showing a top divergence and the death cross is continuing to expand, solidifying the bearish trend. At the hourly level, the rebound momentum is clearly weakening at the middle band, indicating that the bearish trend is about to continue again.
Operation Suggestions:
Bitcoin: Short at the rebound to the 89700-90000 range, target 88500.
Ethereum: Short at the rebound to the 3050-3080 range, target 2980.
#比特币VS代币化黄金 #ETH走势分析
The market has entered a rebound repair phase after experiencing a waterfall decline. The four-hour level shows that the price is under pressure near the lower Bollinger Band, with the middle and lower bands diverging downwards. The MACD is showing a top divergence and the death cross is continuing to expand, solidifying the bearish trend. At the hourly level, the rebound momentum is clearly weakening at the middle band, indicating that the bearish trend is about to continue again.
Operation Suggestions:
Bitcoin: Short at the rebound to the 89700-90000 range, target 88500.
Ethereum: Short at the rebound to the 3050-3080 range, target 2980.
#比特币VS代币化黄金 #ETH走势分析
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12月5日 比特币以太坊行情分析
日内操作可关注以下关键位：支撑区间90,000-90,500考虑做多，阻力区间94,000-94,500考虑做空。
比特币已进入严重缩量横盘阶段，流动性不足令短线交易盈亏比下降，建议保持适度观望。需重点留意价格回踩后的反弹力度，尤其是对94,000美元关键位置的测试情况。另一方面，
以太坊走势相对稳健且结构更优，整体趋势仍偏向多头，4小时图级别需重点关注3050-3080区间的中轨支撑表现。#比特币VS代币化黄金 #ETH走势分析
日内操作可关注以下关键位：支撑区间90,000-90,500考虑做多，阻力区间94,000-94,500考虑做空。
比特币已进入严重缩量横盘阶段，流动性不足令短线交易盈亏比下降，建议保持适度观望。需重点留意价格回踩后的反弹力度，尤其是对94,000美元关键位置的测试情况。另一方面，
以太坊走势相对稳健且结构更优，整体趋势仍偏向多头，4小时图级别需重点关注3050-3080区间的中轨支撑表现。#比特币VS代币化黄金 #ETH走势分析
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December 4 Market Analysis
The market has moved down as expected, and the afternoon "rebound to short" strategy has been accurately fulfilled. Those who have followed can handle it flexibly based on their positions: some may take profits or reduce positions while keeping a core position to balance cashing out and holding.
The evening target remains unchanged—focus on 92000 support for Bitcoin, and look towards the 3100 range for Ethereum. The trend remains bearish, but do not chase positions; patiently wait for confirmation of a rebound before making further moves. Personally, I believe there may be fluctuations near the key support, so observe for stabilization signals before deciding on the next steps. Maintain rhythm and seek progress steadily. #币安区块链周 #ETH走势分析
The market has moved down as expected, and the afternoon "rebound to short" strategy has been accurately fulfilled. Those who have followed can handle it flexibly based on their positions: some may take profits or reduce positions while keeping a core position to balance cashing out and holding.
The evening target remains unchanged—focus on 92000 support for Bitcoin, and look towards the 3100 range for Ethereum. The trend remains bearish, but do not chase positions; patiently wait for confirmation of a rebound before making further moves. Personally, I believe there may be fluctuations near the key support, so observe for stabilization signals before deciding on the next steps. Maintain rhythm and seek progress steadily. #币安区块链周 #ETH走势分析
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