On December 7, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 again this year on Polymarket is currently reported at 33%, while the probability of it dropping below $80,000 is reported at 37%.

Why can we judge the market's real expectations and people's true thoughts through prediction markets?

In our daily lives, we often encounter stubborn people. For example, when discussing whether Tesla or BYD is the better company, no matter how much data is presented for comparison, as long as one side remains stubborn, saying 'I just think xx is better', the argument cannot be resolved. But what if there are stakes involved? For instance, regarding which company is performing better in terms of business growth this year, this would likely reduce a lot of debates. Therefore, we can look at the prediction market with real money at stake to see people's true thoughts and gauge the general sentiment of optimism or pessimism in the market.

However, we also need to combine this with indicators such as the fear and greed index, funding rates, and long-short ratios to understand what people in the market are really thinking. The words spoken by people in the cryptocurrency world are often unreliable.

Nonetheless, we should remain cautious. In the future, prediction markets will become increasingly popular and representative of public opinion, and there may be cases where prediction markets skew public sentiment. For example, even if xx cryptocurrency is clearly worthless, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars can enhance market expectations. For prediction markets, we should treat them as a source of information and not take everything at face value.