25/12/07 BTC weekly rebound is relatively weak, long-term still shows an upward trend, but short-term may enter a small bear market.
The weekly Bitcoin chart is about to close, but the rebound strength has not even broken through the first resistance level, and the rebound is still relatively weak. The movement on Monday will be quite critical, and we are still in a process of probing the bottom and building a base.
From the monthly chart, since the peak in 2021, it has formed a rounded bottom pattern leading to a flag breakout, taking about 1092 days, and since breaking 73777, it has been 392 days. From the perspective of both shape and time-space, it still shows a long-term upward trend. However, in the short term, it has fallen back to around 80600, entering a phase of consolidation or a small bear market.
Whether it's CZ or JPMorgan, they all believe the bull market has not ended. Many people also think the 4-year cycle may not adapt and may extend. However, the short-term downward trend still hasn't changed.
Bitcoin
The weekly upward trend line of Bitcoin has definitely been broken. Now we just need to see the support near 74,500. The daily line has dropped to the 0.886 line of the shark pattern. If it continues to break below 80,600, there is a chance to break below the low of 74500, completing the 1.13 reversal of the shark pattern. So this is the first situation.
The second situation is that if it can hold around 74500, it will undergo a very large level of box oscillation. Then there will be a chance to move in one direction later, here I refer to the historical trend of the gold ETF.
Support: 70000—74500
Pressure: 96000—101516
Ethereum
The weekly line of Ethereum has also dropped to the Fibonacci 0.618, but the current rebound still hasn't broken through a key resistance, so the rebound remains weak. However, the MACD bars on the weekly line have shortened, which is a good phenomenon. But the downward trend line on the daily line still hasn't been broken, so we still can only wait.
But a good phenomenon is that the ETH/BTC exchange rate daily line has broken through, also breaking the downward trend of three and a half months. However, the author believes that only a few altcoins will rebound strongly, and the majority still need to wait for Bitcoin to find a bottom. What is worth looking forward to is the market trend during the Spring Festival every year.
Support: 2620—2718
Pressure: 3240—3600
