BTC交易公子扶苏

25/01/052️⃣4️⃣ Year Market Operation Summary and Outlook for 2️⃣5️⃣ Year Market Trends

What is happening now is very similar to the period at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024.
In terms of growth: the increase from 24900 to 49000 and from 52500 to 108353 is about double.

In terms of patterns: after a 224-day oscillation in the range of 24900—31800, it broke through; the rising flag pattern oscillated for 238 days in the range of 49000—74000.
After breaking through 40,000 in 23, it formed a spreading triangle; after breaking through 90,000 in 24, it also formed a spreading triangle, which lasts about 35 days.

In terms of timing: previously, we mentioned that after oscillating for more than 7 months, the beginning of each month tends to have turning points, so the probability of a turning point in the first week of next month is relatively high. (This was mentioned in the article on 24/12/29, reminding that the adjustment is about to end, and it is the best time to buy in batches for bottom-fishing, coinciding with the crypto president taking office during the Spring Festival!)

25/12/08BTC short-term continues to rise, the interest rate cut in December is about to come, the shoe dropping is the real risk.

Bitcoin weekly close is a doji, currently the price remains around 91400, the weekly MACD histogram is shortening which is a good phenomenon, RSI has rebounded from the multiple downturn levels during this bullish market. There are two days until the interest rate cut, watch for a rebound before the cut, mainly pay attention to Powell's speech and the market reaction after the shoe drops.

The Federal Reserve will start a record monthly repurchase of $45 billion bonds from January 2026, large-scale money printing is about to come, which is also one of the positives, plus the Fed is about to change to a crypto-friendly personnel.

25/12/07 BTC weekly rebound is relatively weak, long-term still shows an upward trend, but short-term may enter a small bear market.

The weekly Bitcoin chart is about to close, but the rebound strength has not even broken through the first resistance level, and the rebound is still relatively weak. The movement on Monday will be quite critical, and we are still in a process of probing the bottom and building a base.
From the monthly chart, since the peak in 2021, it has formed a rounded bottom pattern leading to a flag breakout, taking about 1092 days, and since breaking 73777, it has been 392 days. From the perspective of both shape and time-space, it still shows a long-term upward trend. However, in the short term, it has fallen back to around 80600, entering a phase of consolidation or a small bear market.