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26/01/26 Crypto Four-Year Cycle: Is it a Bull Market 'Shura Field' or a Bear Market 'Slaughterhouse'?
26/01/26 Crypto Four-Year Cycle: Is it a Bull Market 'Shura Field' or a Bear Market 'Slaughterhouse'? Hello everyone, I am the Young Master. Since 2023, I have been doing (annual market operation summaries and outlooks for the coming year) every year, which has long become a fixed ritual in recording my trading journey. This commitment to myself and to the friends who have accompanied me should have been fulfilled by the end of 2025, but has been delayed due to trivial matters. I apologize to everyone for this. Finally, during the Spring Festival holiday, I can calm down and sort through the past, analyzing the market outlook. A complete version will be shared with everyone as soon as possible.
I. 2025 Market Review: The 'Grinding Moment' of High Consolidation, the 'Shura Field' for Spot Players
26/01/25 BTC weekly engulfing pattern, the daily line is still in a downward continuation, the upcoming trend is very critical.
26/01/25 BTC weekly engulfing pattern, the daily line is still in a downward continuation, the upcoming trend is very critical. The weekly engulfing pattern is accompanied by enormous volume (as seen in comparisons across different exchanges). The MACD histogram is either crossing the zero axis or continuing to grow, with the fast and slow lines showing a trend to continue downward. This current phase is very critical. If we look at the time and space, a pullback to 126,000 for about 3 months is similar to the price at the beginning of 2025. The monthly line still has about a week left to close, and if it forms an inverted hammer line, breaking below the monthly MA20 and failing to recover above 90,500, it will continue to decline.
Ethereum closed with a doji last month, and this month we will observe the trend over the next week. The monthly line also closed below the monthly MA20, with the MACD fast and slow lines crossing downwards, and the histogram returning to the zero axis. In an optimistic scenario, Bitcoin and Ethereum may experience wide fluctuations in their weekly and monthly lines before moving in one direction, similar to what happened after the approval of the gold ETF.
The prediction on Polymarket that 'Bitcoin will drop to $85,000 in January' has a probability of 32%, while the probability of rising to $100,000 is only 6%
Young master: The pressure cannot break through for a long time; I continue to be bearish in the short term, and if it does not break, it will not stand
It all depends on the extent of the drop; if it breaks $85,000, it will increase the probability of breaking down to $80,600 $BTC $ETH $SOL #达沃斯世界经济论坛2026 #特朗普取消对欧关税威胁 #美国加密市场法案延迟
The market has recently been extremely sluggish, and the divergence between bulls and bears is evident, with two main versions:
① Bullish Version
• Since 2021, a massive reverse head and shoulders pattern has been forming
• The key neckline has been tested multiple times but still holds
• If it breaks above $130,000 effectively, the theoretical target could reach $180,000+
② Bearish Version
• Monthly MACD death cross, double top structure, similar to the peak in 2021
• The upper edge of the ascending channel is encountering resistance, posing a significant risk of a pullback
• If critical support is lost, it may drop to the $50,000 area
Personal Understanding
• The long-term pattern still leans bullish, but mid-term indicators are bearish, resembling a “deep correction in a major trend”
• In terms of operation: control positions + set stop losses, reduce positions at the upper edge, buy back at the lower edge, don’t hold a full position stubbornly
• Now is not the time to bet on direction, but rather to safeguard oneself + wait for clearer signals
The Bank of Japan maintains interest rates, in line with expectations
In a few days, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is also expected to keep rates unchanged
For now, Bitcoin is still around 89000, and this wave has a minimum dip near 87000
As long as this bottom does not break, there is hope for another upward push to continue the Spring Festival red envelope market $BTC $ETH $SOL #达沃斯世界经济论坛2026 #特朗普取消对欧关税威胁 #美国加密市场法案延迟
What happened to the price after the launch of the gold ETF? (A lesson for HODLERs)
The gold ETF was launched on November 18, 2004. At that time, the spot price of gold was $444.30/ounce.
24 hours after the launch of the gold ETF... the gold price fell. ($443.70/ounce)
24 days after the launch of the gold ETF... still falling. ($436.95/ounce)
24 weeks after the launch of the gold ETF... even lower. ($430.50/ounce)
24 months after the launch of the gold ETF... the spot price of gold was $624.00/ounce.
For those wondering why BTC is following the decline and not the rise at the moment... 1. Relax 2. Zoom in and take a look at $BTC $ETH $SOL #达沃斯世界经济论坛2026 #特朗普取消对欧关税威胁 #下任美联储主席会是谁?