Bitcoin is making another attempt to break the downtrend that has kept the crypto king limited since the end of October. The price hovers near $91,000 as investors witness a rare change in market structure unfold.
For the first time in more than two and a half years, short-term traders have outperformed long-term traders in realized gains, creating both opportunities and risks for BTC.
Bitcoin is seeing some changes
MVRV Long/Short Difference highlights a noticeable shift in Bitcoin's profit distribution. A positive reading typically signals that long-term traders have more unrealized gains, while a negative value indicates that short-term traders are ahead.
In Bitcoin's case, the difference has plunged into negative territory for the first time since March 2023. This marks 30 months since short-term traders last led in gains.
Such dominance raises concerns because short-term traders tend to sell aggressively when volatility increases. Their profit-taking can put pressure on BTC's price if the broader market weakens, especially during attempts to break the downtrend.
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Despite this change, Bitcoin's broader momentum shows encouraging signs. Data on changes in net position on exchanges confirms increasing outflows across major platforms, signaling a shift in investor accumulation. BTC leaving exchanges is often viewed as a bullish indicator, reflecting confidence in long-term value appreciation.
This trend suggests that many traders view the $90,000 range as a reasonable bottom zone and are preparing for a potential rise. Sustained outflows support price stability and strengthen the likelihood that BTC breaks above immediate resistance levels.
Bitcoin is trading for $91,330 at the time of writing, positioned just below resistance at $91,521. Reclaiming this level and turning it into a support level is crucial for BTC to challenge the one-and-a-half-month downtrend. Without this breakout, upward momentum remains limited.
If short-term traders refrain from selling and accumulation continues, Bitcoin could climb towards $95,000. A successful break above this level could send BTC towards $98,000, signaling renewed bullish strength.
But if short-term traders start taking profits, the pressure could push BTC back towards $86,822. A drop to this level would prevent a meaningful breakout and invalidate the bullish setup, keeping Bitcoin within its multi-week downtrend.
