Bitcoin is once again trying to break the downtrend that has constrained the crypto king since late October. Prices are moving close to 91,000 USD as investors look for rare market structure changes.
For the first time in over two and a half years, short-term holders are realizing more profits than long-term holders, creating both opportunities and risks for BTC.
Bitcoin has seen some movement.
The MVRV Long/Short Difference indicator highlights notable changes in the profit distribution of Bitcoin. A positive reading often indicates that long-term holders have more unrealized profits, while a negative value means that short-term holders are ahead.
In the case of Bitcoin, the margin has dropped into negative territory for the first time since March 2023, marking 30 months since short-term holders last led in profits.
Maintaining this margin raises concerns, as short-term holders tend to sell aggressively during market volatility. Their profit-taking behavior may increase pressure on BTC prices if the broader market weakens, especially during attempts to break the downtrend.
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Despite this shift, the broader momentum of Bitcoin still shows supportive signs. Data on net position changes on major platforms confirm the increase in outflows, indicating a change in the accumulation of BTC investors leaving the market, signaling positive signs and reflecting confidence in long-term growth.
This trend suggests that traders see the 90,000 USD mark as a reasonable lower zone and are preparing for a potential recovery. Continued outflows support price stability and enhance the possibility of BTC breaking through resistance immediately.
Bitcoin is currently trading at 91,330 USD, just below resistance at 91,521 USD. If it can reclaim this level and turn it into support, it will be crucial for challenging the downtrend that has lasted over a month and a half. If it fails to break this resistance, upward movement will remain limited.
If short-term holders do not sell and continue to accumulate, Bitcoin could rise to 95,000 USD. Successfully breaking this resistance could send BTC to 98,000 USD, signaling renewed buying strength.
However, if short-term holders begin to take profits, the pressure could push BTC back to 86,822 USD. Falling to this level would prevent any meaningful breakout and render upward setups ineffective, keeping Bitcoin trapped in a downtrend for several weeks.
