The weak oscillation pattern analyzed in the morning continues, with strong caution in the market ahead of major macro events. Below is a review of the market along with strategies based on the latest developments.
Core Market Dynamics and Data
· Bitcoin Status: Continuing to oscillate around the key level of $91,000, with intense competition between bulls and bears. The area between $93,000 and $93,500 constitutes strong resistance, while the area between $90,000 and $90,500 is an important support zone.
· Ethereum Status: Currently fluctuating around $3,060 as the market corrects. Technically, there is a clear pressure from the hourly moving averages, and the MACD indicator is weak. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the key support can be maintained.
· Macroeconomic focus: The entire market's attention is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and subsequent press conference at 3 AM Beijing time on December 11. Although the probability of a rate cut is very high, the policy statement and Powell's 'hawkish' or 'dovish' tone will directly determine the short-term direction of risk assets.
Current market interpretation
The 'bearish dominance' pattern mentioned in the morning remains unchanged, but has developed some new characteristics:
1. Contraction of fluctuations, waiting for a breakout: The volatility range of Bitcoin ($91,000-$93,000) is narrowing. This type of contraction usually means the market is accumulating energy, waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision as a catalyst to choose a breakout direction.
2. The technical aspect remains bearish, but it is not advisable to chase shorts: KDJ death cross and weak rebounds are still valid technical signals. However, before significant events, the market is prone to a reversal trend of 'selling the expectation, buying the fact', which increases the risk of directly chasing shorts.
3. Sentiment indicators: The Fear and Greed Index is still at a low level, indicating that the overall market sentiment is leaning toward fear, which is often a breeding ground for rebounds, but it may also be a continuation of the decline.
Strategy adjustment
Given that the market is in a 'calm before the storm', the strategy should shift from 'aggressive offense' to 'cautious defense, waiting for the opportunity'.
· Bitcoin
· Key levels: $91,000 (bull-bear dividing line), $93,000 (strength-weakness watershed).
· Strategy: Before the Federal Reserve's decision, prices may maintain fluctuations within this range. Aggressive traders can lightly short near the $93,000 resistance, with a stop loss above $93,500, targeting $91,500. Cautious traders should wait and watch for the market's directional choice after the decision.
· Ethereum
· Key levels: $3,080 (recent resistance), $2,970 (initial support).
· Strategy: The trend is linked to Bitcoin but may fluctuate more. Pay attention to the resistance effect in the $3,080-$3,120 range. If the rebound fails to break above this level, it can be seen as a short-term short opportunity, with a stop loss above $3,150 and a target looking down to around $2,970.
Key reminder
1. Position management: From today until the decision tomorrow, all operations must be light, with total positions recommended not to exceed 1/3 of usual.
2. Strict stop-loss: In event-driven markets, volatility may amplify instantaneously, and it is essential to set clear stop-losses for every trade.
3. Focus on the timing: Pay close attention to December 11, 03:00-04:00 (Federal Reserve decision and press conference), as the market may experience significant volatility and directional choice during this time.
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Market interaction
The market is experiencing low-volume fluctuations before major news. Will you choose to stand still and wait for a clear direction, or take a small position to predict and bet on one side? Feel free to share your strategy for today in the comments section.#ETH走势分析

