November Core Economic Data Review and Future Outlook

In the manufacturing sector, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November in the United States recorded 48.2, which not only fell short of the market expectation of 49 but also declined further from last month's value of 48.7. It has been below the 50 mark for nine consecutive months, highlighting the ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector and insufficient recovery momentum.

In contrast, the services sector performed relatively strongly, forming a sharp contrast. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for November reached 52.6, exceeding the expected value of 52.1, and rose from last month's 52.4, achieving six consecutive months above the threshold, with two consecutive months of month-on-month improvement, showcasing the support of the services sector for the economy.

The job market shows signs of divergence. The ADP employment number in November unexpectedly decreased by 32,000, far below the expected increase of 10,000, and a significant drop from last month's addition of 47,000, reflecting a slowdown in labor demand in certain sectors and showing signs of weakness in the labor market. However, for the week ending November 29, initial claims for unemployment benefits recorded 191,000, lower than the expected 220,000 and the previous value of 218,000, indicating that unemployment figures remain relatively low, and the resilience of the job market has not completely faded.

Regarding interest rate expectations, according to CME FedWatch Tool data, as of December 5, the market expects a 13% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate level in December, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is as high as 87%. Looking ahead to January next year, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate drops to 9%, with a 25 basis point rate cut probability of 64.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut reaching 27%, indicating a growing expectation in the market for the Federal Reserve to start a rate-cutting cycle.

Looking ahead, next week will see the December Federal Reserve meeting, and the core PCE price index to be announced on Friday, as a key inflation indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, is expected to provide crucial reference for policy decisions, further clarifying the direction of the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. $BTC $ETH #比特币VS代币化黄金 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐 #ETH走势分析