GOLD ANALYSIS — WEEK 50/2025 (08/12–12/12)

📉 Brief overview:

International gold prices fluctuated last week — from 4,264 → decreased to 4,164 → rebounded to 4,259 → closed at 4,198 USD/oz. In Vietnam, SJC gold bars (DOJI) opened the week at 155.2 million → dropped to 153.8 → ended the week at 154.2 million/tael.

🌍 Key developments:

Current prices are stable around 4,200 USD/oz due to:

• US inflation remains stable.

• US labor market growth is slowing → triggering expectations that the FED will cut interest rates before the next meeting.

CME FedWatch reflects ~90% probability that the Fed will continue to ease.

🧭 Expert opinions:

Many experts believe that the likelihood of interest rate cuts has been largely priced in. However, if the Fed signals a stronger cut in 2026, gold may receive significant support.

Notable macro risks:

• Large budget deficits and public debt in the US → risk of printing more money, which could push inflation and cause global instability.

Factors determining the trend:

Gold prices will depend on: FED policy, economic growth, geopolitical risks, USD movements, and central bank purchasing demand. To retest historical peaks, gold needs a combination of many factors, especially a strong easing scenario from the Fed.

🏦 Key calendar for the week:

In addition to the FED meeting, there are also interest rate decisions from: RBA, BoC, and SNB — the market predicts they will remain unchanged.

🔧 Technical corner (H4):

• Prices are moving sideways within a narrowing range.

• Resistance: 4,264 USD/oz — breaking towards 4,380.

• Support/negative: maintaining below 4,200 could pull prices to fluctuate in the range of 4,100–4,265 USD/oz.

🆘 Note: This is a reference analysis. Gold may fluctuate sharply before unexpected news.