Many people currently think that "the bull run is about to start" — the charts are rising, there's hype again in the feed, everyone is waiting for "just a little more and to the moon."
But if you remove the emotions and look at the market systematically, the picture is different: we are still in a bear phase, just locally there are some rebounds.
Let's break it down point by point.
## 😶🌫️ 1. Bear market ≠ eternal collapse
The market is currently in a state that I call:
“bear background, bullish bursts.”
- A major drawdown has already occurred — liquidations, panic, blood on the street.
- After that, the capitalization started to slowly recover.
- But the global trend has not yet turned into a sustainable uptrend.
It's important to understand:
it is possible to be in a bullish trend within a bearish cycle,
and in a bear trend within a bullish cycle.
Therefore, dividing the world into “bull run / crypto winter” is no longer enough.
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## 📉 2. Why this is not yet a bull run
Signs of a true bull run:
- not only Bitcoin is rising, but also the broader market;
- a mass influx of liquidity begins in altcoins, not just isolated spikes;
- growth is supported for months, not weeks;
- newcomers are returning in droves, not just little by little.
Right now we see:
- the dominance of Bitcoin;
- absence of a classic “alt season”;
- strong fragmentation of liquidity: individual trends are flying, not the whole market.
That is, the market is more likely telling us:
“Don’t sleep, but don’t swing for all-in either.”
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## 🪙 3. What to do as an investor in such a phase
Now is not the time for heroism, but for survival and accumulation.
The logic is this:
1. Portfolio base — “store of value” assets
- Bitcoin;
- Ethereum;
- strong L1s like Solana;
- 1-2 projects with real revenue and deep liquidity (deflationary/buyback models, exchanges, perpetuals, etc.).
2. Everything else is pure speculation, without illusions.
Meme tokens, fresh alts, trendy narratives — this is not fundamental, but a casino.
You can only go in there with a small portion and only with a cool head.
3. The goal of the phase is not “x10”, but not to die before the real trend.
Right now, the ones making money are not the smartest but the most disciplined.
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## 🎯 4. How to act in a bear market: sniper mode
In such a phase, the market rewards not those who shoot at everything but those who:
- patiently sits on the base (BTC/ETH/SOL, etc.);
- observes narratives;
- enters selectively into clear anomalies when it sees a strong trend and confirmation by volumes.
Sometimes individual coins can do x5–x10 even against the general bear mood.
But these are exceptions, not the norm.
They need to be caught like a sniper, not trying to “catch everything that moves”.
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## 🧠 5. Removing binary thinking
The main mistake of newcomers now is thinking in terms of:
> “Just say it, bull run or bear?!”
The market is living more complicated:
- locally there can be a bullish trend,
- globally — bear background,
- regarding Bitcoin — one picture,
- regarding altcoins — it's completely different.
Therefore, the adult approach is:
- monitor the overall state of the market (BTC dominance, sentiment, liquidity);
- to understand that the cycle is not yet in the final phase of euphoria;
- uses the current time to accumulate a base and build discipline.
## ✅ Conclusion
There is currently neither a classic bull run nor a total crypto winter.
There is a bear market with local bursts of bullish sentiment.
In such a phase, those who win are:
- does not rush;
- accumulates strong assets;
- does not fall in love with every pump;
- and is ready to meet a real trend not with an empty wallet but with live capital.
Surviving in this phase is more important than squeezing the maximum out of it.
