Liquidity is the true blood of the bull market. Every fluctuation on the chart tonight is digesting Wall Street's expectations in advance. I am Qi He, and while monitoring the market, my backend was flooded with messages about SOL; everyone is asking the same question: Is the current position at 132 an opportunity or a trap? Don't rush, we will analyze it chart by chart.
The news contains hidden mysteries: it is not about interest rate cuts, but about the 'tap'.
First, let's look at the first chart. What is the core meaning of the financial news?
The biggest thing for the Federal Reserve this week is not whether to cut interest rates, but whether to open a new 'tap' to inject new liquidity into the market.
But there is a key time lag: the news states that Wall Street major firms expect the Federal Reserve to really start 'easing' and buying government bonds, which may have to wait until January next year or even later. Therefore, tonight's meeting until early tomorrow morning, the market is likely to experience a 'realization of expectations' or 'failure of expectations' trend.
Technical cold reality: Bears are in control of the situation
Looking at the second chart, our SOL one-hour candlestick: the reality is stark:
Trend: Clear downhill path, with highs continuously decreasing.
Position: Current price 132.39, exactly hanging in between the key level 135 and strong support 130, unable to go up or down, very awkward.
Indicator: MACD is below the zero axis and has formed a dead cross, which is a typical sign of a strong bearish area. The white line is below the yellow line, as if pressed underwater, needing tremendous effort to surface.
Qi He's personal view:
I lean more towards 'testing for a bottom' directly strong rush to 145? Probability is below 30%. With MACD being so weak, it requires huge unexpected positive news or buying pressure to reverse, tonight's Federal Reserve meeting minutes are unlikely to provide such instantaneous energy.
A drop to 135 or even 130? Probability exceeds 60%. Once a trend forms, there is inertia. Bears will continue to test the lower support with technical weakness and market hesitation. 135 is the key touchstone, there will be resistance here, but if it breaks down and the one-hour candlestick closes below, 130 is just around the corner.
Follow Qi He, I will quickly break down this position for you in the next trend and share exclusive methods for early layout in the cryptocurrency circle using 'liquidity expectation difference'. Tonight, let's watch the market together.
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