📈 Major positive factors
1. Improvement in macro liquidity
The Federal Reserve ends QT: Quantitative tightening ended on December 1, 2025, stopping the withdrawal of liquidity from the market, creating a more favorable environment for risk assets, including crypto assets.
Interest rate cut expectations rise: The market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates early has strengthened, driving a general rebound in global risk assets (including Bitcoin). (But caution is needed regarding the implementation of the rate cut)
2. Institution acceptance and capital inflow
Public companies 'stockpiling coins': Public companies represented by MicroStrategy continue to purchase and hold Bitcoin, forming a stable buying force.
Spot ETF becomes a channel: The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has attracted significant institutional funds, with a large asset management scale. Traditional financial institutions like Vanguard have opened related trading, further broadening the channels for mainstream funds to enter.
Increase in long-term fund proportion: The market buying structure shows positive changes, with an increase in long-term allocation funds providing more solid support for prices.
3. The regulatory framework is gradually becoming clear (mainly in the United States)
The United States establishes stablecoin regulation: The signing of the (Genius Act) provides a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, enhancing market confidence in the long-term compliant development of cryptocurrencies.
Regulatory attitude shifts: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has begun exploring 'innovation exemptions' for crypto businesses, showing a more proactive regulatory stance.
📉 Major bearish factors
1. Macroeconomic environment and risk sentiment
Global 'risk aversion' sentiment: Concerns over overvaluation in fields like artificial intelligence, mixed global economic signals, and other factors have triggered widespread risk-averse sentiment, with funds fleeing from high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
Japan's interest rate hike expectations (especially noteworthy): If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates (with a probability of 91%), it will lead to large-scale unwinding of carry trades financed in yen globally. Investors will sell risk assets like Bitcoin to repay yen borrowings, creating concentrated selling pressure in the short term.
2. Internal market structure and leverage
High leverage positions 'de-leveraging': The market experienced a significant leverage reset in November 2025. A large number of high-leverage long positions accumulated previously were forcibly liquidated when prices fell, creating a vicious cycle of 'decline - liquidation - sell-off' that amplified the decline.
ETF funds flowing out in the short term: As a key institutional funding channel, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF recorded its first monthly net outflow in November after several months, weakening short-term price support.
3. Global regulation continues to tighten (structural bearish)
Absolute prohibition domestically: China maintains a comprehensive ban on cryptocurrency trading and mining, and recent regulatory trends show a tendency for normalization and coordination, constituting a long-term structural limitation.
Global regulation tightening: Major economies such as the EU and the United States are strengthening regulatory scrutiny and enforcement on crypto assets, which may suppress market speculation enthusiasm.
Technical aspects:
Technical aspects can only serve as a supportive role and should not be overly relied upon. Any indicator has lagging characteristics; direction can only be judged through macroeconomic conditions, combined with technical indicators like K-line shapes to find entry and exit points!
The conclusion drawn from the technical aspects is that the downward trend of Bitcoin has not been broken. A slight rebound in the short term is expected, but the bias remains bearish. If it does not stabilize above 94000 before the interest rate announcement, we will see prices starting with 7. The previous short positions around 91700 and 94000 still remain effective; entering around those levels for speculation is advisable (be cautious with position sizes, as the current macro news landscape is characterized by a tug-of-war situation).#美联储重启降息步伐
