Long time no see, "Three Lines Combined"

As of October 6, after the last wave of surges, the red line began to move downward in sync with the blue and green lines. Although the price reached a new high, the MVRV value ultimately failed to break through the previous high of 2.42, continuing the trend of significant divergence.

Since the "Three Lines Combined" itself is based on the theory of a 4-year bull-bear cycle, divergence means the end of a trend/cycle (which cannot be falsified temporarily). From the perspective of the red line's trend, it is indeed currently operating in the direction of the blue and green lines according to the timing rhythm of past cycles.

If this continues, by December 31, the MVRV will roughly be around 1.51-1.66. Based on current RP calculations, this corresponds to a BTC price of $85,000 - $94,000.

After this, entering the new year of 2026, according to the predictions of the "Three Lines Combined" esoteric indicator, during the period from January to May, the MVRV will operate within a wide range of 1.27-1.85, corresponding to a BTC price of $71,000 - $104,000;

Coincidentally, $104,000 is exactly where we previously referred to as the demarcation line between bull and bear markets, known as STH-RP (Short-Term Holder Average Cost). This also indicates from an esoteric perspective that it is difficult for the rebound to significantly exceed this line (if it does, it means the theory of bull-bear cycles has been completely broken).

According to the traditional 4-year cycle theory, the bottom of the bear market should appear between September and December of 2026. However, if the K-line for 2025 forms a doji, it would have actually broken the rhythm of the previous annual K-lines of 3 up and 1 down, indicating that the timing of the cycle is accelerating, and the so-called "bear bottom" may also be advanced.

Whether it is truly as stated above, we can only verify it with time.