Recently, everyone has been saying:

"The Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates! Is the market about to come alive?"

Actually, the key point is not the rate cut.

What truly affects the market is — when the Federal Reserve will start to "inject liquidity" back into the market.

🔍 Why is the rate cut not the focus?

Cutting rates is like slowing down a car.

But injecting liquidity (buying government bonds) is like adding fuel to the tank.

Without fuel, the car can't go far.

The market is the same: liquidity (funds) is what truly drives the market up.

💧 Recently, the Federal Reserve has been quietly doing something more important:

It has slowed down the "balance sheet reduction."

Balance sheet reduction is withdrawing money.

Slowing down the balance sheet reduction = no more withdrawal.

If it starts buying government bonds next, it means: 👉 officially injecting money into the market.

This is genuinely positive for the stock market and cryptocurrencies.

🏦 How do institutions predict this?

Some institutions are particularly aggressive, like Bank of America:

"The Federal Reserve may start buying short-term bonds at a rate of $45 billion per month as early as January next year."

What does $45 billion mean?

It's like turning on the faucet for the market.

Although it won't be called "QE,"

the effect is to push money back into the system.

There are also more conservative institutions, like Vanguard:

"Starting to buy again in Q1/Q2 next year, $15–20 billion per month."

The pace is different, but the direction is the same:

👉 Money will eventually be released.

📉 What about interest rates?

On the contrary, that's not the focus.

The market has already priced in the rate cut,

so the impact is not significant.

What really matters is when the balance sheet expansion will start and how large it will be.

⭐ In summary:

Rate cuts are a small matter,

injecting liquidity is a big matter.

If the Federal Reserve really starts buying government bonds and replenishing money into the banking system,

then by the end of this year to the first half of next year:

👉 There is a chance for U.S. stocks

👉 BTC has a chance

👉 ETH has even more chance

👉 Altcoins might follow suit

The market always rises when there is "more money,"

not when "sentiment is good."