Your analysis is correct about the structure, correct about the psychology, correct about the large cash flow.

Observing the ICP chart on the daily frame clearly shows that the selling force has weakened significantly, with the small red candles and volume contracting strongly. This is a classic setup before the flow shifts back to mid-cap. Many on-chain indicators also show that large wallets are still holding stable, with no signs of further distribution.
The annoying thing is that the price being stuck horizontally for so long makes people think there is no more opportunity, but this segment is where the compression force is created. When the compression force is strong enough, a small piece of news or a gentle push is enough to trigger a rapid spike.