I am Old Li. I just took a close look at the latest ETH four-hour candlestick chart, and the price is stuck at this key position of 3135 dollars, unable to go up or down. Let me break down today's operational key points in the simplest terms.

1. The core signals of the current market

From this chart, several key pieces of information can be seen:

The price is oscillating around 3135 dollars, with upper resistance at 3239 dollars and lower support in the 3050-3100 range.

Three important moving averages show:

The short-term line MA5 is at 3054 dollars.

The medium-term line MA10 is at 3092 dollars.

The long-term line MA30 is at 3239 dollars.

The price is capped by MA30 (3239 dollars), indicating that the medium-term trend is still dominated by bears.

Second, there is fierce competition between bulls and bears near 3135.

Looking at the order data on the right is very clear:

In the narrow range of 3135.16-3135.19, a large number of buy and sell orders are piled up.

The largest order is a sell order of 67.637 ETH at 3135.17.

Order ratio -0.81%, order difference -85.943, indicating slight selling pressure, but the gap is very small.

This order structure indicates that $3135 has become today's battleground.

Three, how might today progress?

Old Li assesses that there are three possibilities:

First scenario (60% probability): Consolidation between 3050-3239. The bulls and bears continue to tug-of-war, with prices fluctuating back and forth within this wide range, which is the most grueling pattern.

Second scenario (25% probability): A volume breakout above $3239. If buying pressure is strong enough, breaking through this strong resistance level will target $3300-3350 next.

Third scenario (15% probability): Break below the 3050 support. If the bears apply pressure, the price may accelerate towards the 2980-3000 support area.

Four, Old Li's practical advice.

For brothers holding positions:

If the cost is below $3100, you can continue to hold and observe whether 3239 can break through.

Brothers with heavy positions are advised to set a stop loss at 3050; if it breaks, reduce positions first.

Rebounding to the 3200-3239 range is a good opportunity to reduce positions.

For brothers who want to enter the market:

Aggressive approach: You can try a small long position in the 3130-3140 range, with position size not exceeding 10%, and set a stop loss below 3100.

Conservative approach: Wait for a breakout above 3239 to enter, or wait for a rebound after breaking below 3050 to short.

Five, several key points to watch closely.

Bullish signals:

A golden cross appears on the 15-minute chart with MA5 crossing above MA10.

Volume suddenly expands, and the price stabilizes at 3239.

Large sell orders on the order book start to withdraw.

Bearish signals:

The price fell below 3100 and did not recover within an hour.

The high points of the rebounds are getting lower.

A MACD divergence appears on the 30-minute chart.

Six, special reminder.

Today we must keep a close eye on Bitcoin! If BTC falls below $91000, ETH will likely follow suit.

Avoid opening positions in the 3130-3150 range, as it is easy to get caught in a squeeze.

A single trade loss should not exceed 2% of total capital; this is an iron discipline.

Old Li summarizes:

Currently, ETH is at a critical position, looking up at 3239 and down at 3050. Remember these twelve words in your operations: "Don't chase highs, don't panic sell, key levels, act again."

Making money in the crypto space doesn't require catching every fluctuation; just make the right choices at critical positions. Today's critical positions are the two prices of 3050 and 3239. If it holds, follow it; if it breaks, withdraw. It's simple and clear.

Remember, until the trend is clear, controlling position size and maintaining patience is more important than anything else. Better to miss out than to make a mistake!