老李谈圈1

Breaking news! The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics just announced that the PPI (Producer Price Index) data for October will not be released. This key data, known as the 'inflation warning bell' in the market, has suddenly 'disappeared', and the signals behind it are certainly not simple. Today, Uncle Li will explain clearly what this means for the cryptocurrency market.
1. Why is PPI data important?
First, let me explain that PPI measures changes in the purchase costs of enterprises and is a leading indicator of CPI (Consumer Price Index). In simple terms:
PPI rises → Enterprise costs increase → Future costs will be passed on to consumers → CPI may rise → The Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts

I am Old Li. I just took a close look at the latest ETH four-hour candlestick chart, and the price is stuck at this key position of 3135 dollars, unable to go up or down. Let me break down today's operational key points in the simplest terms.
1. The core signals of the current market
From this chart, several key pieces of information can be seen:
The price is oscillating around 3135 dollars, with upper resistance at 3239 dollars and lower support in the 3050-3100 range.
Three important moving averages show:
The short-term line MA5 is at 3054 dollars.
The medium-term line MA10 is at 3092 dollars.
The long-term line MA30 is at 3239 dollars.
The price is capped by MA30 (3239 dollars), indicating that the medium-term trend is still dominated by bears.

The main force uses the CPI fake fall to lure shorts, Trump adds fuel to the fire - the 2980 short position is a trap dug for retail investors. But don't panic, Brother Qiu will guide you to pry open the coffin lid with the 'hedging dagger' that the main force hates the most.
Decrypting the massacre scene
CPI trap:
On the surface: Core CPI 2.9% meets the standard
The truth: Excluding food and energy, the actual rate is 3.3% and the main force takes the opportunity to smash the market and absorb short positions
Trump's assist:
Interest rate cut 3% call → Ignite the long position fuse
Deadly foreshadowing: Indonesia's 19% tariff countdown (7 days to implementation will trigger inflation)
Main force killing move chain:
Smash the market at 2980 → Lure shorts to follow → Explosive cleaning → Leave corpses everywhere
Class injury first aid kit

#BTC再创新高 Feeling itchy to rush in when you see 'Nvidia partner'? Stop! This company itself said 'I don't know what Old Huang is using our products for'—Big H is here to analyze today whether this kind of 'ambiguous announcement' is a golden opportunity or a new script for fleecing investors?
1. What is Junwei Electronics really about?
This company name sounds like 'the electronic factory with a sprained ankle', but in reality, it is a screw in Nvidia's supply chain making precision resistors.
The surreal reality is that it has collaborated with Nvidia for many years, yet it can’t even clarify whether its own products are ultimately used in graphics cards or AI servers…

#BTC再创新高 Why did the dollar suddenly 'stiffen up'?
Michael Pfister, an expert from Deutsche Bank, said the dollar has fallen too much and is only having a technical rebound! Just like a night-shift worker who has been burning the midnight oil, one has to catch a breath. Recently, the Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a one-month low, and shorts are making a killing; it's normal for them to cover positions in the short term.
But beware! This rebound is like a 'paper tank' - expectations of Fed rate cuts loom like dark clouds, and Trump is still cursing every day (saying Powell should be fired). Can the dollar really turn things around? It's tough.
2. Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September: the dollar's 'death knell'
Deutsche Bank is betting directly: September's rate cut is certain! Currently, market expectations exceed 70%. Powell is tough on the surface, saying 'let's look at the data,' but his body is very honest - inflation is slowing, and employment is cooling; rate cuts are already a given.

​​Core logic: CPI data is the "switch" for interest rate cut expectations and determines the direction of short-term fluctuations​​
The current market expectation is that the CPI in June will be 3.3% year-on-year (previous value: 2.4%) and 0.2% month-on-month. If the actual data deviates from expectations, it will directly impact the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September (currently about 70%), thereby triggering volatility in the crypto market.
​​Three major scenarios and cryptocurrency reactions​​
​​Scenario 1: CPI ≥ 3.6% (25% probability) → "Short nuclear explosion"​​
Market reaction:
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September dropped sharply to below 40%, the US dollar index rebounded to 105+, and US Treasury yields soared.

Will the dollar experience a 'roller coaster' this week? It all hinges on these two things!
HSBC's forex guru Paul Mackel stated that whether the dollar rises or falls this week depends entirely on two matters—changes in U.S. policy and inflation data! The June CPI (inflation data) is about to be released, and it is expected to be slightly higher than in May. If the data is too poor, the dollar may 'plummet'; if the data is decent, the dollar may hold up.
But the problem is, the Trump administration is still throwing tariff bombs everywhere, targeting Brazil, Canada, the EU, Mexico, and even drugs and copper! In the short term, these policies may make the dollar 'stronger', but what about the long term? It could drag down the global economy, and the dollar might suffer!

Trump's tariff threat shakes the world, market risk aversion surges
US President Trump recently postponed the equal tariff grace period and threatened to impose high tariffs, an action that directly exacerbates global trade tensions. Historical experience shows that escalating trade wars often trigger market worries about economic uncertainty, leading to a surge of funds into safe-haven assets. Bitcoin, as 'digital gold', is likely to become the biggest beneficiary of this wave of risk aversion.
Looking back at the 2019 China-US trade war, Bitcoin rose by 30% in a single month, far surpassing the performance of traditional safe-haven asset gold. With Trump once again brandishing the tariff stick, the market fear index (VIX) has begun to rise. If the situation worsens further, Bitcoin is very likely to replicate the explosive growth of that year.

Candlesticks are the diary written by the main force; if you understand it, you are half a master! This saying has circulated for a long time in the crypto world, but very few can truly read this 'diary.' I am Big H, after eight years of ups and downs in the crypto world, from being a million in debt to achieving financial freedom, all thanks to these three candlestick techniques. Today, I will share these practical insights worth millions without reservation, allowing you to break free from the bondage of news and no longer operate based on anyone's face!
First Trick: Morning Star and Evening Star — The Morse Code for Main Force Trend Changes.
The perfect morning star pattern at the $3000 bottom of Bitcoin in 2019 changed my life. The morning star consists of three candlesticks: the first day’s large bearish candle creates panic, the second day’s small body shows hesitation, and the third day’s large bullish candle confirms the reversal. It's like the main force wrote in their diary: 'I'm going to start buying here.' The evening star is the opposite, signaling a top reversal.

#鲍威尔谈话后市场调整降息预期 #BTC走势分析 Today, the crypto world was flooded with a message - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made a strong statement: "Unless I die, I will never resign early!" This is no joke, it's explosive news from Nick Timiraos, the 'Fed's official reporter.'
1. Why did Powell suddenly pledge loyalty?
With the US election approaching, the political scene is changing. There are rumors that if Trump is elected, he may replace Powell. This old man’s loud statement directly tells everyone: "I will serve until the end of my term in 2026, and no one can force me out!"
2. What does this mean for the crypto world?

#BTC再创新高 Do you feel the same way? After finally buying a coin that skyrockets, you only gain 20% and run, then watch it double? Or you stubbornly hold until the peak and lose all your profits?
Today I'll teach you a trick called 'Moving Take-Profit Method', I made an extra 5 million on BTC using it. The method is as simple as breathing, but 90% of people won't use it.
Why do you always sell too early or get stuck?
Take profits and run: fearing profit pullbacks, only to miss the main upward trend.
Greed leads to holding on: wanting 'just a little more', only to fall back to the cost price.
Emotional trading: getting excited and chasing highs when it rises, panicking and selling when it drops.

#ETH突破3000 #趋势交易策略 On July 11, LD Capital founder JackYi shared significant insights: Ethereum breaking through $3000 marks the official start of the crypto industry's bull market. As a top industry investor, JackYi has repeatedly emphasized 'stay confident, do not short', and provided three core logics that have drawn strong market attention.
Currently, ETH prices have broken through key psychological levels, and market sentiment is rapidly warming up. Does JackYi's statement indicate that a new round of surges is imminent? Let's delve into his viewpoints and analyze the upcoming market trends!
JackYi's three core viewpoints: Why has the bull market arrived?

#BTC再创新高 #ETH突破3000 Do you feel the same? Watching the K-line every day, studying MACD and RSI, waking up in the middle of the night due to liquidation, and ending up with a shrinking account? I used to be like you until an experienced investor woke me up: in the crypto world, the smarter you are, the more you lose; simple methods are the way to go.
He taught me a simple 343 phased investment method, as easy as an elementary school math problem, but I turned 200,000 into 50 million in two years! Today, I will break down this method for you, no predictions, no all-in, just guaranteed trend profits!

Why do technical analysts lose money instead?
I used to be obsessed with technical analysis, only to find out that market makers specifically target so-called smart investors. What you think is a support level could be a trap; what you think is a breakout could be a false signal. Frequent trading + emotional trading = liquidation package.

Veterans in the crypto world will help you analyze the new stablecoin landscape#BTC再创新高

The latest research report reveals shocking news! Guotai Junan International's latest report reveals: In the context of strong promotion of compliance in the US, USDT's status in the market is facing unprecedented challenges!
[Storm is Coming]
USDC, PYUSD and other 'regular army' are coming in strong
USDT may retreat to the 'gray area'
The stablecoin market is about to enter the 'dual track system' era
[In-depth Analysis by Big H]
Compliance vs Non-compliance: Future stablecoins will part ways
Broadway: Regulated stablecoins like USDC
Underground passage: 'Wild path' players like USDT
Must-read for ordinary investors:

Brothers, the Federal Reserve is stirring things up again! The latest meeting minutes have exploded—internally, there are three factions arguing, some calling for rate cuts, others insisting on rate hikes, and some lying flat and observing. This rare division has directly confused the market, with Bitcoin jumping around the $112,000 mark—could it be a signal for takeoff or a precursor to a crash? Today, I will explain it to you in the simplest terms!

The three factions of the Federal Reserve, full analysis of the impact on the crypto market.
Rate cut faction (doves): These people believe inflation is under control and are shouting, 'Hurry up and cut rates to inject liquidity!'
Impact on the crypto market: Great news! With more money, it will rush into Bitcoin, potentially continuing to hit new highs.