Good questions. Here is an updated data-driven overview of Meteora (MET) — what we know recently: structure, tokenomics, recent behavior, risks — plus how it matches your bearish trading-thesis.
-native DEX / liquidity infrastructure,” Meteora’s dynamic liquidity model is regarded by many as a “next-gen” DeFi primitive for Solana — combining efficient liquidity provisioning, dynamic fees, yield optimization, and token-launch infrastructure.
Given the recent history of whale airdrop sell-offs and future unlock schedule, supply-side pressure remains high — reinforcing the downside bias.
The combination of fundamental uncertainty (distribution controversy, vesting over 6 years, dilution risk) and bearish technicals increases the probability that downside targets — like your TP1/TP2 zones — could be reachable.
That said, there are factors that could trigger a bounce (or at least support) — such as renewed interest in Solana-DeFi, improved utilization of the protocol, or a broader alt-market recovery.
⚠️ Key Risks & Uncertainties / What to Watch Closely
Large locked supply unlocks ahead — additional supply release (team, ecosystem, reserves) could cause bearish pressure if demand doesn’t pick up.
Whale / early-holder behavior — if large holders continue to dump, price may take further hits.
General altcoin and Solana-DeFi sentiment — if the broader crypto market or Solana ecosystem recovers, MET could see unexpected rallies.
Protocol adoption & utility usage — long-term value depends on whether Meteora’s liquidity infrastructure is widely used, liquidity grows, and the protocol delivers on its promises (DLMM, dynamic pools, fair token launches).
Regulatory or macro risks in crypto — like any crypto project, broader market/regulatory shifts may dominate performance rather than project-specific factors.
🧾 My View: MET — Bearish-to-Neutral in Short-to-Mid Term; Bullish-conditional Long-Term
