Author: Qingfeng btc | Date: December 8, 2025
On December 8, the global financial market resembled a precision ballet: the dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate meeting were like a warm breeze, pushing risk assets to collectively warm up, while the uncertainty of BOJ rate hikes and geopolitical frictions were like invisible undercurrents, creating subtle tensions. Major currencies experienced slight fluctuations, with the dollar index holding at 99.85, the euro rebounding to 1.0825, the pound touching a high of 1.2720, and the yen hovering around 150.20. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency sector stabilized at $2.97 trillion, with BTC standing at $91,300 and ETH approaching $3,033, a 24h increase of 1.15%-1.86%, and the Fear & Greed index rising from 20 to 25 (neutral to fear). On this day, the flow of funds shifted from defensive bonds to high beta assets: the US stock market's NASDAQ rose by 0.8%, silver prices soared to $58.5/ounce testing liquidity limits, although mutual funds saw an outflow of $2.316 billion, crypto ETFs reversed to record a net inflow of $176 million.
This is not an isolated 'intraday rebound,' but a signal of a turning point in the liquidity cycle: After the Fed ends QT, the 6.6 trillion dollar 'reservoir' begins to overflow, global capital awakens from the tightening 'hibernation,' tilting towards emerging growth areas. This article deeply analyzes today's crypto news and prices, mainstream currency dynamics, and capital flow mechanisms, revealing 'how policy differentiation reshapes asset rotation,' and provides practical insights - during the 'honeymoon period,' how to avoid 'reefs'?
Crypto hotspots: LTH supply bottom + fading selling pressure, BTC 'digital gold' narrative reignites.
Today's crypto market is flourishing, with a total market cap increase of 1.15% in 24 hours, trading volume of 150 billion dollars (+15%), and transaction activity rebounding to November highs. Bitcoin dominance remains stable at 58.5%, rebounding 8% from a low of 83K, currently priced at 91,304 dollars (+1.86%), with a market cap of 1.81 trillion dollars. Long-term holders (LTH) supply hits a cyclical bottom - when BTC dropped to 80K, the peak of selling pressure has passed, on-chain data shows short-term holders' SOPR rebounding to 1.01, easing profit-taking pressure. This marks the end of 'capitulation,' with institutional buying signals flashing: BlackRock increased its holdings by 1.2 million ETH this week, and whales added 47K BTC to self-custody.
ETH performs well, priced at 3,033 dollars (+0.1%), market cap of 361.3 billion dollars, driven by Fusaka upgrade expectations + Layer2 expansion 8-fold, ETH/BTC ratio rises by 0.2%, indicating the initial signs of altseason. Altcoins are diverging and leading: SOL +6.11% to 128 dollars (ETF resilience), DOGE +6.56% to 0.139 dollars (meme heat recovery), XRP +5.86% to 2.08 dollars (ETF weekly inflow of 644 million exceeding BTC). Negative aftershocks linger: Upbit hacker incident resumes, but a loss of 37 million dollars sends a warning bell; Yearn DeFi pool incident triggers a 2%-3% sell-off in early trading.
Technical aspects: BTC rebounds after testing the 20-day SMA, analysts optimistic about a 125K target (CoinDesk forecast); ETH RSI exits oversold territory, with a 60% probability of reaching 3,850 dollars by year's end. Information-driven: SEC chairman states 'BTC will become a cornerstone of global finance,' Vanguard opens crypto ETF injecting tens of billions; however, China’s 13 departments crack down on stablecoin money laundering, Tether rating 'weak' remains questionable.
Mainstream currency dynamics: The dollar loosens, and the yen's appreciation squeezes arbitrage space.
Today's forex market reveals hidden truths in calmness: The dollar index DXY slightly fell by 0.2% to 99.85, benefiting from the Fed's dovish expectations (85% probability of rate cut on December 11), but BOJ's hawkish signals (50% rate hike) drag it down. Euro EUR/USD rebounded by 0.3% to 1.0825, with ECB's December 18 decision expected to moderate rate cuts; Pound GBP/USD +0.2% to 1.2720, supported by BoE inflation data; Yen USD/JPY +0.5% to 150.20, with rising risks of arbitrage reversal (4 trillion funds may force liquidation).
Real-time exchange rates of mainstream currencies (vs USD, December 8 close in Eastern US):
Global capital situation: From mutual fund outflows to ETF reversals, the liquidity 'reservoir' is overflowing.
Today's capital situation is a microcosm of 'defense turning to offense': Global liquidity indicators (BIS data) show M2 growth rebounding to 3.2%, government bond market liquidity improving (2.5 trillion reserves stable after Fed's balance sheet reduction in 2025). Mutual fund outflows of 2.316 billion dollars (accumulated over 6 days) reflect investors shifting from stocks to crypto/commodities; however, funds in risk assets are accelerating rotation: silver price spikes to 58.5 dollars/ounce (up 80% year-to-date), testing liquidity limits, U.S. stock NASDAQ +0.8%.
Key flow:
Crypto ETF: BTC/ETH weekly inflow of 176 million dollars, reversing the 379 million outflow in November; Vanguard opens products, potentially injecting tens of billions.
Bonds/Commodities: Government bond yields drift in the range of 6.45%-6.54%, may drop after Fed's decision; UNCTAD report warns of financial volatility threatening trade, global growth projected at only 2.6% in 2025.
Emerging markets: The Indian rupee is under pressure (affected by Fed's decision), but the Australian dollar +0.4% benefits from commodity recovery.
Bank of England's financial stability report emphasizes 'global risks are high, geopolitical + policy uncertainties are intensifying,' but Merrill Lynch outlooks 'normalization of overnight funding, risk assets regain support.' Overall: capital flows from defense (bonds) to offense (crypto/technology), end of QT + rate cut expectations release 6.6 trillion 'reservoir,' with a 60% probability of a Christmas rally in December.
Deep integration: How do policy and capital reshape the crypto world?
Today's market is a textbook case of 'liquidity dominance': Fed's dovish stance + end of QT as a 'dual engine' pushes BTC LTH bottom rebound, selling pressure fades; however, the appreciation of the yen by BOJ squeezes arbitrage opportunities, amplifying short-term volatility (historical: a similar event in August 2024 saw BTC drop 16%). The path of capital rotation is clear: outflow from mutual funds → inflow into crypto ETFs → spillover into altcoins (SOL/DOGE leading with +6%), RWA market cap breaks 50 billion becoming a new darling.
Insight: The crypto world is not an island - The loosening of the dollar benefits BTC as 'digital gold,' and the rebound of the euro assists DeFi cross-border; however, the rupee/canadian dollar are under pressure, which may affect emerging altcoins (e.g., TRX +0.86%). Practical experience: Core BTC/ETH 70%, beta SOL/XRP 20%, cash 30% to avoid risks. Tom Lee's bullish data: BTC year-end 112,000, ETH 3,850 dollars.
From 'fear' to 'greed' crossroads.
On December 8, global capital awakens from 'hibernation,' and the green rebound in crypto signals a turning point: LTH bottom + ETF reversal laying the foundation, but BOJ 'dark thunder' + trade risks need to be vigilant. The liquidity feast has begun, and those who endure the turbulence will reap the rewards. Is your position ready? Rational HODL, let's see the truth in December!
