Family, who understands! Recently, tracking the candlestick chart of Bitcoin is even more exhausting than taking my retired dad out for a walk. You say it hasn't risen? The account numbers are indeed a bit red; you say it's bullish? It's just dawdling around in circles like an elderly person afraid of getting tired. If this trend were to be made into a documentary, I've already thought of a title: (About my unwillingly vigorous crypto asset).
Let's get to the point, don't just listen to my complaints. Many friends in the circle have asked me whether this is a channel uptrend or a bear flag structure? My judgment is 'a pseudo-breakout pattern of oscillation and accumulation.' If you look at the candlesticks from the past month, there's pressure above and support below, as if it's been fitted with an invisible guardrail for rises and falls. I've repeatedly mentioned in the community that this kind of structure is most averse to 'chasing highs and cutting losses,' because when it rises, it lacks the explosive power of a bull market, and when it falls, it lacks the harshness of a bear market; essentially, it's just funding grinding chips, waiting for retail investors to lose patience and hand over their chips before taking action.
In the past six months of monitoring the market, I have never seen such a 'Buddhist' style of rising. A few days ago, someone in the community shouted 'straight to 100,000', and I immediately poured cold water on it: an increase without matching volume is all 'paper tigers'. If you look at the recent capital flows, the main players have not significantly entered the market; it has been small retail investors going back and forth. This is also why that surge in the early hours yesterday looked lively but couldn't hold; I had just finished adding to my position when it started to consolidate, and the money I made was just enough to buy a cup of Starbucks, perfectly illustrating 'the meat that is about to reach your mouth can't fill the gaps between your teeth'.
Talking about what everyone is most concerned about: What signals should we wait for next? My view is very clear, I hope for a pullback, specifically a pullback to the 'golden support zone' of 88,000 to 90,000. This range is not something I made up; it is the 'iron bottom' that has not been broken in the previous three declines. Each time it has touched this level, it has rebounded by more than 2000 points. Now if it directly rushes to 95,000 or even 100,000, it's like going for a marathon without warming up, there’s a high probability of stumbling along the way; but if it can confirm support with a pullback, then the confidence for subsequent rises will be strong enough.
