Medium to long-term risks are significant: The weekly decline of Bitcoin has begun, expected to continue until 2026, with a target around $62,000. The daily decline has not ended, initially looking at the 75,000-80,000 range. The 4-hour rebound might end at any time, and a new round of decline may start this weekend.
In the short term, pay attention to the strength of the rebound: Bitcoin's 1-hour rebound is in progress, if it breaks through 94,150, then look towards 95,000; if it is blocked in the 92,000-94,100 range, then it is a bearish signal. The current 15-minute first wave of rebound is nearing an end, a shallow adjustment holding at 90,800 has a high probability of breaking upwards, while a deep adjustment to 90,000 increases difficulty.
Ethereum is synchronized with Bitcoin, short-term support at 3,060, rebound pressure at 3,200-3,240. If the 4-hour level cannot break through 3,440, the market may then test 2,200-2,600.
Summary: Focus on the strength of the rebound in the short term, maintain caution in the medium to long term, and do not be misled by short-term rebounds.
