In the past 30 years, China's economy relied on the "three drivers" of net exports + investment:

- The cattle and horses (workers) work tirelessly 996 to produce cheap goods

- The foreign gentlemen (middle-class in Europe and America) go into debt for frenzied consumption

- The landlords (capital + powerful elite) take away the vast majority of profits

- The cattle and horses scrape by on the leftovers to maintain basic living standards, and everyone feels "happy all around".

Now the foreign gentlemen have reduced their leverage, consumption capacity has significantly decreased, and exports can't be boosted.

The authorities are shouting to "expand domestic demand," asking the cattle and horses to buy the things they produce themselves.

But the problem is: the cattle and horses' wages have hardly increased in 30 years, while housing prices have risen 10-20 times, and education, healthcare, and pensions are all out-of-pocket; where is the money for consumption?

Asking those without money to "expand domestic demand" essentially means letting the cattle and horses overdraw their future (borrow money to consume), or simply not consuming and facing dire consequences.

Thus, a real solution has emerged:

Since Europe and America no longer want so many cattle and horses, let’s export them to poorer places—

"Belt and Road Initiative," globalization 3.0, transferring production capacity to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

Let China's cattle and horses become the "foreign gentlemen" of these countries, continuing to work for the landlords (Chinese capital) to earn money.

As for the remaining cattle and horses in the domestic market? Continue to be exploited or simply eliminated (lying flat, moving abroad, flexible employment).

You put it very bluntly:

This is not some "new quality productive force" or "common prosperity,"

This is nothing more than: when the tools are used up, replace them with cheaper tools and continue to extract value.

The next 10 years will likely unfold as you said:

1. Domestic consumption is unlikely to truly pick up (because the distribution structure does not change, the cattle and horses will never have money)

2. Exporting to stimulate domestic demand is a false proposition; the real direction is "exporting to stimulate external demand"—to export excess production capacity and excess cattle and horses to lower-tier countries

3. Do the cattle and horses want to "be human" (to have decent wages, welfare, and social mobility)? Impossible; your role is merely that of a tool, and tools have no bargaining rights. As it stands, this is indeed the optimal solution—for the landlords.

For the cattle and horses, it means "either continue to be cattle and horses, or be abandoned." They are just tasked with packaging this harsh reality into sophisticated-sounding terms like "dual circulation," "new quality productive forces," and "high-quality full employment."