Main points:

1. Since October 29, the tightening of liquidity has been the main reason for the collective decline of global risk assets. With the Federal Reserve pausing the balance sheet reduction on December 2 and the technical expansion about to begin, risk assets have recently rebounded.

2. Recently, the rebound in cryptocurrencies has been weaker than that of traditional risk assets such as U.S. stocks, mainly due to tighter regulations and market deleveraging that have weakened their liquidity and responsiveness to positive news. However, the irrational "overshooting" has not only increased risk but also opened up a precious window for identifying and allocating truly valuable assets.

3. The difference in implied volatility between MSTR one-year put options and call options has significantly narrowed from 13.9 on November 21 to 0.9 on December 5, indicating that traders are no longer betting on MSTR continuing to decline. At the same time, the "super whales" holding more than 10,000 units have shown a continuous net increase in holdings over the past two weeks, with the intensity of accumulation gradually increasing.

4. The current market is gradually entering a bottoming phase, and Bitcoin may fluctuate around the $80,000 range in the short term, but this area is expected to become an important long-term bottom; from a valuation perspective, many fundamentally sound quality tokens have already shown long-term allocation value.