A brief explanation of the large market junction
It seems that the American stock market is once again storming to new heights: the S&P 500 is at historical highs, the NASDAQ is a couple of percent from its peak, and gold and silver are hitting records. But what about Bitcoin? Instead of growth, there's heavy stagnation, slow pullbacks, and broken impulses. The main question arises: why has crypto stopped responding to the rallies of global markets, even though it used to follow them almost mirror-like?
The reason is that the structure of global markets has changed. Capital no longer moves in broad streams but flows selectively — into stable companies, protected sectors, and low-risk instruments. Crypto, after a series of high-profile crashes, is experiencing a period of distrust: institutions have stopped aggressively expanding positions and are acting extremely cautiously.
That is why the correlation between S&P and Bitcoin is collapsing. The crypto market is gradually becoming a separate ecosystem, where its own — non-stock — factors are the drivers: regulatory decisions, ETF dynamics, liquidity pressure, and internal mining cycles. And while the traditional market lives in its reality of profits and buybacks, crypto is going through a phase of cleansing and rebooting.
The more these trajectories diverge, the stronger the next long-term impulse. This is not a bug, but a sign of the industry's maturation. And it is only correct to analyze the market through its internal mechanics, rather than by mirroring the stock index.
