Solana (SOL) continues to hold above the critical demand zone between $121–$127 in Monday’s session and is now pushing closer to a major downward resistance trendline connecting the October 6 and October 27 highs, currently sitting near $140.

If SOL manages a daily close above this resistance, the market could trigger a high-conviction bullish breakout.

However, Solana’s upside remains capped by two major technical barriers:

50-day EMA at $153

200-day EMA at $173

Both moving averages are still trending downward and could act as strong selling pressure zones, making this breakout attempt a high-risk, high-reward situation.

Momentum Indicators Show Improvement — But Risk Still Lurks

On the daily timeframe, technical indicators suggest that momentum is gradually shifting in favor of the bulls:

RSI is currently around 45, leaving ample room to push toward the neutral 50 level — a sign that the bearish bias is weakening.

MACD remains sloped upward above its signal line, reflecting strengthening bullish momentum.

That said, the narrowing gap between the MACD line and the signal line also warns that a potential bearish crossover could still appear, which would invalidate the bullish setup.

Bear Scenario: Breakdown Still on the Table

If SOL fails to hold above $121 on a daily closing basis, selling pressure could sharply intensify. In that case, the next major downside target sits at the April swing low around $95, which would represent a deep continuation of the macro downtrend.

✅ Trading Plan – High-Probability Setups

🔵 LONG SETUP (Breakout Play)

Buy Entry: $141–$143 (Daily close confirmation above resistance)

Take Profit 1: $153 (50 EMA)

Take Profit 2: $173 (200 EMA)

Stop Loss: $132

🔴 SHORT SETUP (Breakdown Play)

Sell Entry: Daily close below $121

Take Profit 1: $105

Take Profit 2: $95

Stop Loss: $129

Final Take

Solana is sitting at a technical decision point where momentum, structure, and macro pressure are all colliding.

This is not a market for emotions — only for precision. One clean daily close will decide whether SOL becomes a breakout leader or a trapdoor collapse.

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