BREAKING: The Entire World Got China's Crypto Crackdown Backwards
Wall Street. The Fed. Every major analyst. All wrong.
Not partially wrong. Directionally wrong.
IMF Working Paper WP/25/141 just revealed what nobody wanted to see:
China is not hemorrhaging capital through stablecoins.
China is RECEIVING it.
$18 billion NET INFLOWS.
Read that again.
The "$50 billion capital flight" narrative that shaped every institutional thesis, every regulatory response, every geopolitical analysis for five years traces to a 2020 footnote covering ALL of East Asia, explicitly labeled "an absolute ceiling."
It was never confirmed. It was never China-specific. It was never accurate.
The IMF found $153 billion in gross flows. Chainalysis found $28 billion. A 5.5x gap. Why? Chainalysis assumes no VPN usage. In China. Where ALL exchange access requires VPNs.
The methodology was broken from day one.
Now the pattern nobody can explain:
Every Chinese crypto ban since 2013 has been followed by Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs.
2013 ban: Bitcoin hit $19,783. 2017 ban: Bitcoin hit $19,783. 2021 ban: Bitcoin hit $68,789. 2025 ban: Bitcoin holds six figures.
Four years after "comprehensive prohibition," China still runs 14 to 21 percent of global hashrate. 59 million users. $75 billion in OTC volume.
Beijing is not building a wall.
Beijing is building a gate.
Hong Kong processes institutional tokenization while retail stays blocked. State brokerages obtain crypto licenses while individuals face prosecution. Yuan stablecoins launch in Kazakhstan while dollar stablecoins get criminalized domestically.
This is not isolation. This is monetary sovereignty competition on terms the West has not yet recognized.
The consensus is positioned for permanent bifurcation.
The evidence points to adjustable aperture.
Fortunes will be made and lost on which interpretation proves correct.
The data is public. The pattern is clear. The question is who adjusts first.
Wall Street. The Fed. Every major analyst. All wrong.
Not partially wrong. Directionally wrong.
IMF Working Paper WP/25/141 just revealed what nobody wanted to see:
China is not hemorrhaging capital through stablecoins.
China is RECEIVING it.
$18 billion NET INFLOWS.
Read that again.
The "$50 billion capital flight" narrative that shaped every institutional thesis, every regulatory response, every geopolitical analysis for five years traces to a 2020 footnote covering ALL of East Asia, explicitly labeled "an absolute ceiling."
It was never confirmed. It was never China-specific. It was never accurate.
The IMF found $153 billion in gross flows. Chainalysis found $28 billion. A 5.5x gap. Why? Chainalysis assumes no VPN usage. In China. Where ALL exchange access requires VPNs.
The methodology was broken from day one.
Now the pattern nobody can explain:
Every Chinese crypto ban since 2013 has been followed by Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs.
2013 ban: Bitcoin hit $19,783. 2017 ban: Bitcoin hit $19,783. 2021 ban: Bitcoin hit $68,789. 2025 ban: Bitcoin holds six figures.
Four years after "comprehensive prohibition," China still runs 14 to 21 percent of global hashrate. 59 million users. $75 billion in OTC volume.
Beijing is not building a wall.
Beijing is building a gate.
Hong Kong processes institutional tokenization while retail stays blocked. State brokerages obtain crypto licenses while individuals face prosecution. Yuan stablecoins launch in Kazakhstan while dollar stablecoins get criminalized domestically.
This is not isolation. This is monetary sovereignty competition on terms the West has not yet recognized.
The consensus is positioned for permanent bifurcation.
The evidence points to adjustable aperture.
Fortunes will be made and lost on which interpretation proves correct.
The data is public. The pattern is clear. The question is who adjusts first.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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