A deep look at the Polkadot (DOT) weekly chart shows that the asset has reached one of the most critical points in its entire price history. From a technical analysis perspective, hereā€™s a complete breakdown of its market cycle, major levels, and trend structure.

1. Market Structure & Cycle Overview

DOT has completed a textbook Boom-and-Bust cycle.

āœ” Full Cycle Reset

Price has returned to the same level where the 2020 mega bull run began ā€” around $1.98

This means the gains of the past 5 years have been entirely erased, bringing DOT back to ā€œcycle ground zero.ā€

āœ” Current Trend

The dominant structure remains bearish:

  • DOT broke its major long-term ascending trendline in early 2022.

  • Since then, price has consistently traded below that line, showing persistent downward pressure.

2. Key Technical Levels

šŸŸ¢ Major Support: $1.98 ā€“ $2.00 (Kiss of Life Zone)

This is the most important level on the entire chart.

Why it matters:

  • This is where the historic 2020 rally began.

  • Price returning to this base suggests seller exhaustion and potential capitulation.

Expectations:

  • A strong bounce from this zone is very likely.

  • But a weekly close below this region could send DOT into downside price discovery, where no strong historical support exists.

šŸ”“ Major Resistance: $10.67 (Critical Barrier)

Price attempted to break this level repeatedly in:

  • 2022

  • 2023

  • 2024

Each time, it was sharply rejected ā€” confirming massive selling pressure.

A true bullish trend cannot begin until DOT reclaims this level with conviction.

āš  Broken Trendline & Intermediate Resistance

  • The old ascending trendline (now broken) acts as strong diagonal resistance.

  • Any bullish move is being rejected at either this trendline or horizontal zones.

Intermediate target on a bounce:

  • $4.50 ā€“ $5.00

3. Chart Pattern Interpretation

āœ” Complete Round Trip

The fall from $55 all the way back to $2 marks a full cycle completion.

Typically, such moves are followed by a long period of accumulation and consolidation.

āœ” Triple Rejection at $10

Three attempts to break above $10 failed ā€” proving that the $10 zone contains a major supply wall.

4. Investor Scenarios & Strategy

šŸ“ˆ Scenario A: Bullish Reversal (Bottom Formation)

Thesis:

DOT is sitting at its strongest historical support ā€” offering one of the best risk/reward setups in years.

Strategy:

  • Gradual accumulation between $1.98 ā€“ $2.10

  • Stop-loss below $1.80

Targets:

  • First bounce: $4 ā€“ $5

  • Extended move: $10+

  • Full cycle recovery: Possibly back toward $50 ATH in a strong bull market

Current Market Price

$DOT DOTUSDT (Perp): 2.134 (-0.55%)