The market is rehearsing the 'worst-case scenario' in advance.

Monday was a frightening day for investors:

- The US stock market fell across the board, gold fell below $4200, Bitcoin briefly dropped below $90,000, and US crude oil fell below the 50-day moving average to below $60. Although the overall decline is not large, it is concerning—US Treasury yields continue to rise, and they are rising alongside the dollar. This combination essentially indicates that investors are quickly withdrawing from 'risk assets.'

This decline is different from the past 'leaderless declines'; there are too many reasons for the market to fall.

· First, Japan's bond market plummeted, infecting the US Treasury bonds, with the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rising to 4.16%—continuing to approach recent peaks.

· Secondly, the market began to trade the Federal Reserve's 'hawkish rate cut,' cutting rates but not providing subsequent commitments—cutting rates no longer equals a policy shift, but is merely a 'technical adjustment.'

· In addition, the speech by the popular Federal Reserve Chair candidate Hassett has made the market sentiment 'break down.' He stated that clearly formulating a six-month Federal Reserve interest rate plan is 'irresponsible.' The duty of the Federal Reserve Chair is to observe data, make adjustments, and explain the basis for actions. As soon as this was said, traders immediately lowered their expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026—from originally expecting three cuts to two last night. Hassett's speech was akin to leaking 'the future tone of the Federal Reserve' a little bit: no commitments, no statements, no aggressiveness. This is more important than 'how much to cut this week.'

Hassett's speech has greatly changed the market's perception of him—just as we mentioned this week in (Global Market Strategy), he needs to establish an image separate from Trump.

Seemingly fearing a chain reaction of continued market declines, Trump began to release good news to 'rescue the market.' He stated that he is finalizing details for exporting chips to China and will allow Nvidia's H200 to be exported to China. This news eased the decline in U.S. stocks. However, this is a 'policy intervention type of stabilization,' not a trend reversal.

Yesterday's market was not 'in trouble,' but rather 'everyone was waiting to see if something would happen on Wednesday.' That is why the volatility was low, but panic deepened. The good news is that the market is pricing in the worst-case scenario early.#ETH走势分析 $BTC #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐