——Everyone holds their breath for a day.
Less than 24 hours remain before the Federal Reserve announces a major decision, and Wall Street is pausing its big bets.
The U.S. stock market shows mixed results, gold prices hover around $4200, and Bitcoin hovers around $90,000——waiting for the Federal Reserve to make a decisive statement.
Yesterday's market performance gave the Federal Reserve more room to maneuver without having to worry too much about the market. However, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, especially the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is nearing 4.2%——the market is already betting on the Federal Reserve's 'hawkish rate cut', actively pushing financial conditions tighter. The rate cut itself is not important; Powell's attitude is the most important. Is he willing to continue cutting? One sentence can change the direction of the world.
Perhaps realizing he spoke incorrectly, Fed Chair frontrunner Hassett last night backtracked, stating there is 'ample room for rate cuts'—Hassett's 'dovish' stance has forced Powell to adopt a 'hawkish rate cut.'
The rhythm that best aligns with market and political balance is:
Interest rate cut basis points (as expected)
Dot plot and language leaning hawkish (calming US Treasuries and the dollar)
But does not directly announce a pause (to avoid triggering risk assets)
In short, with one rate cut, the tone is slightly tight, leaving some 'possibility' for further cuts. Trust Powell's intelligence; he will try to interpret the rate cut as a 'technical adjustment,' not a 'policy shift.' Tonight is a test of 'the art of language,' not a monetary policy exam.
The market is waiting for a 'reassuring future path'; if it cannot be provided tomorrow, volatility is certain—
Options pricing indicates that the S&P 500 could experience a ±0.7% single-day volatility after tomorrow's decision, which is higher than most past decision days. This is because the market feels this is not a 'routine meeting,' but rather a meeting that sets the tone for the next six months.
The real risk lies in the 24 hours following the decision; 'the market's reaction the next day' is more important than on the day of the meeting ('overnight thoughts' reflect the market's true sentiments).#加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议 #美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC
