Bitcoin traders are facing new on-chain signals indicating that older coins are returning to the market as investors prepare for the upcoming Federal Reserve decision. Analysts expect the Fed to cut rates at the December meeting, and the markets have already anticipated a 25 basis point move.
However, on-chain activity indicates underlying uncertainty.
Dormant Bitcoin supply is returning as the market awaits clarity on policy.
Over 2,400 BTC older than ten years moved this week, activating long-dormant supply worth over 215 million dollars. These coins typically remain untouched, and their movement often precedes distribution rather than accumulation.
Another signal shows the Coin Days Destroyed metric flashing again. This metric highlights old holders moving Bitcoins, often to sell at a high price.
Earlier this year, demand absorbed this supply, but analysts now note that buyers are withdrawing while experienced holders are sending crypto to the market.
The return of older supply during weak demand has historically pressured prices. ETF investments remain weak, and net flows indicate reduced institutional interest compared to recent peaks. This suggests that rallies may suffer unless liquidity returns.
Institutional analysts are confident in the broader cycle. Bernstein argues that Bitcoin may break the four-year halving rhythm and transition into an extended adoption phase.
The company expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by 2026, with a potential peak in 2027 near $200,000.
The market direction now depends on the Federal Reserve. If policymakers lower interest rates as expected, liquidity may improve and strengthen risk assets by early 2026.
Weaker dollar and lower capital costs may support ETF demand and absorb long-term holders' sales.
A delay or smaller cut could cause volatility. Combined with renewed supply, Bitcoin may face deeper corrections before recovery.
Analysts warn that strong offers are needed to compensate for the reactivation of outdated supply.
Currently, Bitcoin is transitioning between on-chain activity and macroeconomic expectations. Investors are closely monitoring the FOMC's signal to understand whether the next move will confirm market resilience or reveal further downside potential.
