NVIDIA's stock price surged after hours, and the market is saying that the news about the relaxation of restrictions on the H200 chip exports to China is what triggered it. But is it really that simple?

First, let’s state a basic fact: whether the U.S. Department of Commerce approves or not is just the beginning. NVIDIA's market share in the domestic market has dropped to zero, and it's not just because of the U.S. ban. Domestic regulators have long advised local tech companies to suspend purchases of such advanced chips for data security reasons. Now that the U.S. side has unilaterally relaxed its stance, can it pass the domestic approval process? That is the key to determining actual orders. You may have the key to open one door, but then you find that there is still a second iron gate locked inside; can this deal go through?

What’s even more intriguing is the choice of timing. Why is it specifically the H200—a product that is roughly a year and a half behind the latest architecture? Frankly, this is a typical defensive concession. Huawei's Ascend supernode technology and the advanced process capabilities maintained by domestic chips through multiple exposure techniques have made the other side realize: continuing a comprehensive blockade will only foster a completely independent competitive ecosystem.

The current strategy seems to be throwing out a second-tier product as a buffer, allowing for a share of the pie while attempting to delay the timeline for a complete domestic industrial chain closure. But how long can this fence-sitting tactic last? Once the process of independent substitution in the semiconductor industry starts, it will be hard to hit the pause button. From computing power demands, supply chain security to technical route choices, there are still many variables in this game.