The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on digital currencies

Tomorrow's interest rate decision hinges on the details of the policy path rather than whether or not to cut rates itself. The market widely expects a 25 basis point cut, so the impact will depend on the subsequent signals released by the Federal Reserve.

Three possible scenarios and their impacts:

Scenario 1: Expected dovishness (slight positive impact)

The Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected and maintains its forecast of multiple cuts in 2026. This move will confirm an easing path, boosting market confidence. However, since this has been partially digested by the market, the upside potential for digital currencies may be limited and will require breaking through key resistance levels (such as the Bitcoin price range of $94,000-$98,000) to establish an upward trend.

Scenario 2: Unexpected dovishness (significant positive impact)

The Federal Reserve hints at a more aggressive or faster rate-cutting cycle. This would provide unexpected liquidity support to the market and could become a key catalyst for a strong rebound in digital currencies.

Scenario 3: Hawkish signals (significant negative impact)

This is the main risk. If the Federal Reserve indicates that inflation remains high and that the pace of future rate cuts will slow or pause, it will dampen market sentiment. Given the current market leverage, this could trigger panic selling and a chain of liquidations, leading to a significant price correction. #美联储重启降息步伐 #数字货币