QCP: Market focus on this week's Federal Reserve meeting, Bitcoin's year-end liquidity sees drastic fluctuations
BlockBeats news, December 8, QCP released a daily market observation stating that BTC fluctuated violently between $88,000 and $92,000 on Sunday. As year-end liquidity continues to decline, the market has become particularly sensitive to small capital flows.
However, the scale of liquidations remains relatively small despite the strong fluctuations, indicating that market participation and positions have continued to decrease this quarter. The open interest of the two major perpetual contracts has dropped by 40-50% from the peak in October, and retail sentiment has returned to bear market levels.
Meanwhile, the supply side is clearly tightening. About 25,000 BTC have been withdrawn from trading platforms in the past two weeks, and ETF and corporate holdings have for the first time exceeded exchange balances, showing that while retail investors are exiting, long-term funds are quietly accumulating.
Market focus shifts to Wednesday's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Although the market generally expects a 25bp rate cut, the guidance on the balance sheet will determine the year-end direction of risk assets. Currently, BTC is still fluctuating in the range of $84,000 to $100,000, while market depth continues to deteriorate. With the year-end holiday approaching, a breakthrough on either side could trigger the next major trend.
