Despite Bitcoin's rapid rebound following a sharp drop over the weekend, attempts to continue the upward trend were thwarted when buying pressure dissipated after the U.S. stock market opened on Monday, causing prices to fall again, retracting most of the gains, and fluctuating around $90,000 throughout the day. At the time of writing, BTC fell below 90,000 USD, with a decline of approximately 1.19% over the past 24 hours.
Global bond market turmoil, risk appetite cools
Although the overall cryptocurrency market is relatively stable, the global bond market has experienced significant turmoil. The Japanese bond market seems to be under pressure, driving long-term government bond yields to soar: the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.19%, reaching a three-month high; British and European bonds also weakened in unison. The Japanese 10-year yield is nearing 2%, close to a 20-year high. U.S. stocks also weakened on the same day, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% and the Nasdaq down 0.3%, indicating a clear suppression of market risk sentiment.
The market is currently focused on this week's final annual Federal Reserve meeting. Although a 25 basis point rate cut is fully reflected in expectations, signals from the Fed regarding future policy direction and liquidity tools could trigger new volatility on Wednesday. LMAX market strategist Joel Kruger stated:
"If the financial environment relaxes or the dollar weakens further, it will create favorable conditions for the crypto market; conversely, if the Fed unexpectedly turns hawkish in terms of easing pace or magnitude, it could put the market under greater downward pressure."
BTC faces structural headwinds
Despite Bitcoin's recent rebound from its November lows, Bitfinex analysts warn that the market still shows structural weakness and weakening spot demand. The report points out that when the S&P 500 approaches historical highs, BTC is stuck in range consolidation, indicating a growing divergence between the crypto market and traditional risk assets, reflecting Bitcoin's relative weakness.
Bitfinex lists several key signals that reinforce this view:
The U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs are experiencing sustained capital outflows, with traders selling at high positions instead of accumulating, evident from the significantly negative volume divergence (CVD) from major exchanges.
Over 7 million BTC are in an unrealized loss state, similar to the bearish sentiment during the consolidation period of 2022.
Although capital inflows remain slightly positive (approximately $8.69 billion per month, calculated based on net realized market value changes), it is far below peak levels, providing limited downside protection.
Bitfinex analysts believe that the above factors put the market in a weaker structure before the end of the year. The report summarizes:
"As spot demand weakens, the market currently faces a significant reduction in buying power. This makes price support weaker and increases the market's sensitivity to external shocks, macro volatility, and tightening financial conditions."
Additionally, QCP Capital mentioned in their latest market report that both bulls and bears are currently waiting for a breakout point that can break the deadlock:
"Currently, BTC remains in a range consolidation, with both bulls and bears able to find reasons that align with their narratives in the current market. Ultimately, a clear break below $84,000 or a breakthrough at the psychologically significant $100,000 level would be necessary to initiate the next major trend. The options market reflects this as well: last Friday, there was substantial demand for a 50k/175k straddle expiring on September 25, 2026, indicating that some investors are betting on a significant directional move once Bitcoin breaks out of the current range."
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