Short $MERL: A Great Opportunity Below the $0.5 Ceiling. Over the past few weeks, there have been three aggressive attacks on the $0.5 mark, all of which faced severe setbacks, with a surge in trading volume but weak buying pressure. $0.5 has become a solid structural resistance. The current price is approximately $0.33, with a resonance of three signals—technical, sentiment, and on-chain—suggesting a short position: Technical pressure is significant: three upward attacks accompanied by long upper shadows, RSI is neutral but leaning bearish (53.47), and short-term resistance is at $0.38. After a peak of $0.5295 in 7 days, it plummeted by 37.40%, and bullish momentum has dried up.

Market defensive sentiment dominates: BTC approaches 92K but faces resistance at 94K, ETH rises 3% to $3.135 but overall risk appetite remains cautious, and MERL lacks support from the broader market, with a low probability of a breakout.

On-chain short arbitrage selling pressure is heavy: large holders continue to take profits near $0.5, and supply pressure has not dissipated (circulating 1.05B, aftermath of unlocking events). Futures position expansion suggests increased volatility, but sellers remain active.

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Short Plan: Entry: $0.33-0.35 light position, $0.38 add position (3-5x leverage).

Stop Loss: $0.40 (to guard against false breakouts).

Target: $0.30 (close 30% of the first batch) → $0.30 (fully close, expected return 25%+).

Timing: Rebound expected within 1-2 weeks.

Conclusion: The $0.5 ceiling is unbreakable; take advantage of the BTC/ETH volatility to short down to $0.30, and after securing profits, look for a reversal. Currently, there is a golden opportunity; act swiftly! DYOR.