MERL multiple negative factors overlap, short-term bearish is the main outlook, with a high probability of dropping to the 0.27-0.20 range. MERL has seen frequent on-chain fluctuations recently, with a large address transferring 16 million tokens (approximately 5 million USD) to Bybit, which is significant in scale and usually indicates liquidity preparation or cash-out intentions. The timing is sensitive, occurring around the unlocking period, and this action by the large holder is clearly a 'running away' strategy to avoid liquidity congestion on the unlocking day, which could lead to greater slippage. On-chain behavior can amplify market sentiment, and other holders observing large transfers to exchanges may panic and reduce their positions or adopt a wait-and-see approach, intensifying short-term volatility and creating a sell-off loop. The current price is around 0.34-0.35 USD, with slight fluctuations over the past 24 hours, but the technical outlook is weak: multiple attempts to reach 0.5 have failed, trading volume has shrunk, there are signs of a MACD death cross, and the RSI is close to oversold. Short-term unlocking pressure is highly certain (although the recent round was released in November, linear vesting continues to increase supply), combined with warnings of selling pressure from large holders, buying cannot compete with selling, leading to a structural bearish tilt. Short-term outlook: bearish dominance, rebounds are mostly traps for enticing buyers or opportunities for unloading.