IMPORTANT ADP Weekly Outlook (Est.)

Recent weekly prints show a **series of negative employment changes**:

−11.3K → −2.5K → −13.5K.

This signals that hiring momentum is **weak and unstable**, with companies slowing payroll additions heading into December.

Forecast (Next Release – Dec 16, 2025):

Given the pattern and volatility of the weekly series, the next reading is likely to remain **below zero**, with an estimated range of:

−8K to −15K

This reflects ongoing cooling in private hiring, especially in small- and mid-sized businesses.

Market Bias

* Weak print (below forecast):Bearish USD, risk-off tone, higher rate-cut expectations.

* Surprise rebound (positive print): Bullish USD, stronger risk sentiment, pricing out aggressive Fed easing.

ADP Weekly Employment Change – Summary

The ADP Weekly Employment Change tracks average private-sector hiring over the past four weeks using payroll data from ~26M workers. It’s a fast, high-frequency labor signal and often more volatile than the monthly ADP report.

Market Impact:

A stronger Actual > Forecast reading is bullish for the USD, supporting expectations of strong consumer spending and a tighter Fed stance. Weak readings are bearish for the USD and increase slowdown risk.

Latest Data

| Date | Actual | Forecast | Previous |

| ------------ | ---------- | -------- | -------- |

| Nov 25, 2025 | −13.5K | — | −2.5K |

| Nov 18, 2025 | −2.5K | — | −11.3K |

| Nov 11, 2025 | −11.3K | | 14.3K |

Trend:

Recent negative prints show a softening labor market

Next Release:Dec 16, 2025.

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