The cryptocurrency market has always been 'shaking three times before the shoe drops, and then flying to the sky after the news comes out' — today's ETH is stuck at this 'three shakes' critical point.

This morning, I opened the 4-hour K-line chart and immediately saw ETH grinding at the 3100 position, 'almost breaking its teeth': the big bearish line that fell from 3180 last night is still flashing before my eyes, and this morning it touched 3142 only to pull back, looking just like a child who wants to grab candy but is afraid of getting hit. But if you really think it's soft, you are mistaken — last night when Bitcoin broke through 90,000, ETH didn't fall below 3000, but instead was bought up by whales near 3050 with a 'huge buying volume'. I watched the data on the chain closely: Coinbase's cold wallet transferred 14,000 ETH to a hot wallet, and Binance's spot pool has USDT reserves piled up to 42 billion. How can this be bearish? Clearly, it's 'holding cash waiting to buy the dip.'
Speaking of today's news, it's simply 'putting the market on fire': the Federal Reserve is making an interest rate decision tonight, and the whole world is betting that it will cut rates, but no one dares to go all in — after all, last week, BlackRock's IBIT ETF was just redeemed for 2.7 billion, and institutions are 'holding coins and watching', while we retail investors blindly rush in like cannon fodder. But I dare say: this wave of ETH is more resistant to decline than Bitcoin, as it has real support — yesterday Lido just released their Q3 report, and the DVT nodes have already run 545,000 ETH, with a staking rate up to 29.5%, which is called 'fundamental locking', and with less circulation, it can't drop much.
A few days ago, I told fans in the community to 'buy with eyes closed below 3000', and this morning a brother screenshot said he bought half a position at 3020, now he has a floating profit of 3% — this is called 'the bold thrive'. But don't think you can just lay back and win now, the MACD golden cross on the 4-hour chart is indeed a golden cross, but the RSI just touched 50 and turned back, a typical 'bull not fully fed'. Moreover, last night's sell-off saw the perpetual contract funding rate drop directly from positive to 0.0082%, indicating that shorts are still 'secretly leveraging up', just like when you play cards, the opponent is openly calling, but secretly hiding a bomb.
But I just won't believe it — there’s a detail on-chain that you guys must have missed: Bitmine secretly bought more than 40,000 ETH yesterday, with an average price of 3118, this guy bottomed at 2000 last year and added more at 3000 this year, now holding 870,000 coins, institutional money doesn’t just come from the wind, if they dare to buy, what are we afraid of? Besides, the Fusaka upgrade is coming next week, Layer 2 fees cut by 95%, this is 'solid good news', when NFT and DeFi heat up, won't ETH fly?
This market is like 'an old lady celebrating the New Year — each year worse than the last'? Wrong, it’s 'the harder the spring is pressed, the higher it bounces'. Look at the balance of stablecoins piled up in exchanges, this is called 'off-market bullets loaded', just waiting for the Federal Reserve's 'gunshot' tonight — if interest rates are cut, 3200 will be a matter of tiptoeing; even if rates are not cut, the support at 3000 is strong enough, at worst, we can wait a few more days.
However, I must remind you: don't chase the rise, don't go all in, just focus on 3150 today — if it holds steady, then add positions, if it doesn't hold, just pocket yesterday's floating profit. After all, in the crypto world, the money made is the real money; the numbers floating on the screen are all 'digital games'.

By the way, before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision comes out tonight, I will be calling trades in real-time in the community — what do you think, will ETH directly 'spring up like a bamboo shoot after a rain', or will it first give us a 'deep squat to lure shorts'?
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