金先生聊MEME
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Bullish
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Japan's 7.6 magnitude earthquake 'scares' the yen to raise interest rates! Global markets are on high alert, and the Federal Reserve may issue 'hawkish rate cuts.' A rate cut of 87% is already a foregone conclusion, but how Federal Reserve Chairman Powell 'speaks' will be key.
This week, the global market welcomes the central bank's 'super week,' with the Federal Reserve's policy meeting undoubtedly being the top priority. Although a 25 basis point rate cut is almost certain, investors are concerned that this rate cut may come with hawkish signals, evolving into a 'hawkish rate cut.' The market is holding its breath, and volatility has quietly begun.
U.S. stock and bond markets move synchronously: Caution spreads
On Monday, U.S. stocks experienced a full pullback: the Dow fell 0.33%, the S&P 500 fell 0.30%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.17%. Interest rate-sensitive sectors are particularly affected, as funds choose to withdraw ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision.
Rate cut ≠ dovish! Beware of the Federal Reserve's 'face change'
The market has priced in a 87.4% probability of a rate cut, but the key lies in the subsequent guidance. Will the policy statement emphasize inflation concerns? Will the latest dot plot raise interest rate expectations? Will Powell's press conference downplay the possibility of further rate cuts? These will determine the market direction.
Some analysts warn that the current economy resembles 'stagflation,' and there may be rare divisions within the Federal Reserve. If multiple dissenting votes appear, market volatility is bound to intensify.
The yen suffers a heavy blow: The strong earthquake may force the Bank of Japan to delay rate hikes
Japan was hit by a sudden 7.6 magnitude earthquake, which not only triggered tsunami warnings but also shook the foreign exchange market. The dollar rose against the yen to 155.97. If the disaster leads to increased losses, the Bank of Japan's planned rate hike next week is likely to be postponed, with policy focus shifting towards post-disaster support.
Global central banks collectively deliberate: Most remain on hold
In addition to the Federal Reserve, this week, central banks in Australia, Brazil, Switzerland, Canada, and others will also hold meetings. They are generally expected to keep interest rates unchanged, highlighting the caution among central banks amid global economic uncertainty.
Market winds from all directions: Geopolitics, oil prices, and European trends
· European stock markets fell slightly, and the euro came under pressure. ECB officials even hinted that 'the next step may be a rate hike.'
Summary: The real storm comes after the decision
A rate cut is a foregone conclusion, but how the Federal Reserve 'speaks' will be key. Coupled with the Japanese earthquake disaster, global central bank decisions, and geopolitical situations, the market is in a highly sensitive period. Any unexpected signals could trigger a new round of volatility.
This week, the global market welcomes the central bank's 'super week,' with the Federal Reserve's policy meeting undoubtedly being the top priority. Although a 25 basis point rate cut is almost certain, investors are concerned that this rate cut may come with hawkish signals, evolving into a 'hawkish rate cut.' The market is holding its breath, and volatility has quietly begun.
U.S. stock and bond markets move synchronously: Caution spreads
On Monday, U.S. stocks experienced a full pullback: the Dow fell 0.33%, the S&P 500 fell 0.30%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.17%. Interest rate-sensitive sectors are particularly affected, as funds choose to withdraw ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision.
Rate cut ≠ dovish! Beware of the Federal Reserve's 'face change'
The market has priced in a 87.4% probability of a rate cut, but the key lies in the subsequent guidance. Will the policy statement emphasize inflation concerns? Will the latest dot plot raise interest rate expectations? Will Powell's press conference downplay the possibility of further rate cuts? These will determine the market direction.
Some analysts warn that the current economy resembles 'stagflation,' and there may be rare divisions within the Federal Reserve. If multiple dissenting votes appear, market volatility is bound to intensify.
The yen suffers a heavy blow: The strong earthquake may force the Bank of Japan to delay rate hikes
Japan was hit by a sudden 7.6 magnitude earthquake, which not only triggered tsunami warnings but also shook the foreign exchange market. The dollar rose against the yen to 155.97. If the disaster leads to increased losses, the Bank of Japan's planned rate hike next week is likely to be postponed, with policy focus shifting towards post-disaster support.
Global central banks collectively deliberate: Most remain on hold
In addition to the Federal Reserve, this week, central banks in Australia, Brazil, Switzerland, Canada, and others will also hold meetings. They are generally expected to keep interest rates unchanged, highlighting the caution among central banks amid global economic uncertainty.
Market winds from all directions: Geopolitics, oil prices, and European trends
· European stock markets fell slightly, and the euro came under pressure. ECB officials even hinted that 'the next step may be a rate hike.'
Summary: The real storm comes after the decision
A rate cut is a foregone conclusion, but how the Federal Reserve 'speaks' will be key. Coupled with the Japanese earthquake disaster, global central bank decisions, and geopolitical situations, the market is in a highly sensitive period. Any unexpected signals could trigger a new round of volatility.
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