On October 24, 2025, APRO was listed on Binance Alpha, reaching an all-time high of $0.859, and subsequently retraced to $0.1405. APRO experienced an 83.6% crash within a month, showcasing a typical scenario of 'high open and low close' in the cryptocurrency market. The current price is far below the daily EMA, and market sentiment is sluggish, but the technical oversold signals and the game of future unlocking pressures present investors with complex decision-making dilemmas.
From a technical indicator perspective, the probability of a short-term rebound has increased. Multi-time frame data shows that the 1-hour RSI is 45.21 (neutral), MACD is slightly bearish, and the price is consolidating around the middle band of the Bollinger Bands; the 4-hour RSI is only 26.40, entering a clear oversold range, with MACD showing a +0.00116 bullish divergence, and the price is close to the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, consistent with the technical characteristics of a short-term rebound. Key support levels are concentrated at $0.1353 (1h lower band), $0.1224 (4h lower band), and the $0.123-0.130 long position liquidation zone. The recent low at $0.132 has formed initial support, rebounding 6.8% after reaching this level on December 2; resistance levels focus on $0.1412 (1h SMA50), $0.1445 (1h upper band), and $0.1497 (4h middle band), with a breakthrough potentially opening up further rebound space.
The derivatives market is releasing some bullish signals: APRO's current total open interest is $1,316 million, Binance's position is $632 million, with a 24-hour growth of 6.23%, and market participation has increased; Binance's funding rate is -0.119%, with shorts needing to pay fees to longs, reflecting a slight tilt towards longs in the market. However, the 24-hour liquidation data shows that long liquidations totaled $82,000, while short liquidations were only $20,000, indicating that longs are still under pressure, and a cumulative long exposure below $0.123 has reached $1.57 million, breaching the support level may trigger a chain liquidation. Overall, the short-term (1-4 weeks) rebound probability is about 60%, with a target range of $0.1445-$0.1497; failing to break through the key resistance may lead to a return to the downtrend.
In contrast to the short-term technical signals, there is long-term unlocking pressure. The year 2026 will be a major unlocking year for APRO: starting from January 24, 200 million AT staking rewards will enter a 48-month linear unlocking, releasing about 4.17 million AT per month (accounting for 1.8% of the current circulation); starting from October 24, 200 million AT investor tokens will initiate a 24-month linear unlocking, releasing about 8.33 million AT per month (accounting for 3.6% of the current circulation), resulting in an additional monthly selling pressure equivalent to 5.4% of the current circulation. More severely, there is a risk of token centralization: the current circulating supply is only 23 million AT (accounting for 23% of the total supply), with the top three addresses holding a total of 78%, and the top four addresses accounting for 90.9%, with a few large whales able to directly influence price trends, while the number of holding addresses is only about 18,000, indicating a lack of retail participation and low community enthusiasm.
High-risk preference speculators can take small positions to bet on a short-term rebound in the $0.13-$0.14 range, but should set a stop loss below $0.1224; rational investors should wait for clear signals such as the dispersion of large holders' positions, positive protocol income, or key partnerships landing before assessing the timing for entry.
This is a simple sharing and does not constitute any investment advice.
