In the early hours of Thursday, the Federal Reserve's decision is approaching, and the timing of the announcement is imminent. The market has an 86% expectation of an interest rate cut, but based on current market sentiment and liquidity, even if it happens, it will be just a loud bang with limited splash.

1. The probability of an interest rate cut is as high as 86%, and a 25 basis point cut is basically a consensus. The market has already celebrated in advance, be wary of the old script of 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' reappearing, and don't get too carried away.

2. Dot plot: The focus is on the interest rate path for 2026. Currently, the market is betting on two rate cuts. If more than two cuts are hinted at, it means the Federal Reserve's determination to maintain long-term easing, and the global liquidity feast will continue. If fewer than two cuts are hinted at, or even just one, it equals a tightening signal, warning the market to 'not be too optimistic.' Funds will panic instantly and flee risk assets.

3. Balance sheet expansion: The Federal Reserve has stopped reducing its balance sheet (QT). The ultimate question is whether it will reverse and expand its balance sheet (QE). Once even a hint of balance sheet expansion is released, it will be equivalent to an official announcement that 'new money is on the way.' This will be a tsunami-level positive surprise, ten times more impactful than an interest rate cut, and all risk assets will usher in a violent bull market.

The current market situation is either a rebound or a brewing before a reversal; the answer will soon be revealed. Patience is required!!! #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察