A critical week, summary of news from the past 48 hours;
1. CZ (the most optimistic faction): Throws out the theory of a 'super cycle', believing that the four-year cycle may end, and the future will enter a longer upward trajectory.
2. The White House (policy variables): Pre-announces an unreliable speech that will 'benefit the economy', which the market interprets as a possible release of friendly signals for risk assets.
3. Standard Chartered Bank (realistic downgrade faction): Cuts the target price for BTC next year from $200,000 to $100,000, while the long-term target of $500,000 remains unchanged but postponed to 2030. The reason is simple: institutional demand is below expectations, and ETF inflows are slowing down.
In summary, the current situation of Bitcoin: some are shouting 'this time is different', while others quietly lower expectations, and the market is brewing change amid divergence.
Several signals that can be confirmed at present:
Funds have not left the market; they simply prefer to lay low in altcoins.
On-chain activity has slightly warmed up, indicating that some are quietly positioning themselves.
Macroeconomic uncertainty is highly concentrated on this Wednesday (Powell's speech).
Sentiment is at a low point but has not worsened; it is a quiet accumulation period.
This week's market direction choice is not in the candlestick chart, but in Powell's hands. If Powell strongly pushes for interest rate cuts, the market could instantly shift from 'holding back' to 'explosion mode', with sentiment and funds resonating together.
If there is significant internal resistance and no action is taken, it will continue to oscillate sideways in the short term, using time to gain space. However, regardless of the outcome, this week is an important node for the second half of the year’s market. This is a typical moment where 'sentiment is more critical than data'.
Do you think Powell will be hawkish or dovish this time? Feel free to discuss your judgment in the comments below 👇
