In-depth analysis
1. Generalized risk aversion in the market (bearish impact)
Overview:
The cryptocurrency market has decreased by 1.37% over 24 hours (total capitalization: 3,060 billion dollars), with Bitcoin's dominance reaching 58.56% following a withdrawal of capital from altcoins. The fear and greed index remained at 25 ('Fear'), while the altcoin seasonality index stayed in the 'Bitcoin Seasonality' zone (21/100).
In clear:
the underperformance of 1.5% of ATOM fits the sector trend; altcoins often lag when Bitcoin's dominance increases. Derivative product data reveals moderate interest (open positions: 817 billion dollars, -4.84% compared to the previous month), which reduces liquidity for mid-cap values like ATOM.
To watch:
the price evolution of BTC near the resistance of $116,000 and the capital inflows into spot ETFs ($122.9 billion in assets under management).
2. Delays in the redesign of the tokenomics system (mitigated impact)
Overview:
Cosmos Labs proposed to evolve ATOM towards a fee-based economic model in September 2025, but this community-led redesign is still in its infancy (source). The current inflation (7 to 20%) and low staking yields (around 3.5% on Bitvavo) hinder accumulation.
In clear:
investors are waiting to see if ATOM will capture more revenue related to inter-chain communications (IBC). Meanwhile, competitors like Celestia (modular data) and EigenLayer (re-staking) are capturing developers' attention.
To watch:
updates on the progress of the five-step redesign of the tokenomics system, which should conclude by the first quarter of 2026.
3. Technical analysis (Bearish impact)
Overview:
The ATOM action has broken below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($2.65) and is trading below all key simple moving averages (7 days: $2.28; 200 days: $3.94). The RSI 14 indicator, at 35.7, indicates an oversold situation, but no bullish divergence is observed.
In summary:
the zone of $2.15 to $2.23 (recent pivot point and Fibonacci level at 78.6%) constitutes crucial support. A close below $2.15 could trigger algorithmic selling towards $1.80.
What to watch:
the return of the 7-day simple moving average ($2.28) to signal short-term stabilization.
Conclusion
The retreat of ATOM reflects the general caution of the sector, the delays in economic reforms, and the technical deterioration. Although the IBC infrastructure of Cosmos remains essential (feeding more than 115 chains), the value creation of ATOM is lower than that of its competitors. Key point: will the support at $2.15 hold until the tokenomics updates scheduled for the first quarter of 2026?$ATOM
