Focus on the market details: Currently, the ETH 1-hour BOLL bands have entered a constriction phase, with prices precisely retracing to the middle band support at 3112 (current price 3114.20). After previously peaking at 3179.99, it has pulled back, but the volume is showing a contraction (the volume bars in the chart turned from red to green but narrowed) — this is the main players washing the market, definitely not dumping; although KDJ shows a slight death cross, the K/D values remain firmly in the neutral zone above 40, not entering oversold territory, and the rebound momentum hasn't dissipated at all.
On-chain verification: Glassnode's latest data shows that in the past 24 hours, there was a net outflow of 12,000 ETH (approximately $37 million) from exchanges, with an additional 15,000 ETH staked in a single day. Whale addresses (holding over 1000 ETH) increased their holdings by over 2000 ETH within 4 hours despite the downturn — the main players are quietly accumulating during the pullback, which is a typical pattern of 'washing and accumulating'.
The news adds more fuel: last night the Federal Reserve released expectations for interest rate cuts in Q1 2026, causing the dollar index to plunge by 0.8%, and the risk appetite in the crypto market surged; meanwhile, Arbitrum, a leading Layer2 project in the ETH ecosystem, officially announced the V3 upgrade, with locked positions increasing by 8% in a single day, and Gas fees rising by 15% month-on-month. The enthusiasm in the ecosystem is rapidly transmitting to ETH itself.
The conclusion is very clear: the mid-level support at 1 hour is effective, with both on-chain funds and news working together positively. After stabilizing at 3120, breaking through the BOLL upper band at 3146 is very likely. The first target is to look directly at the previous high of 3180, and after breaking through, aim for 3220; below, just keep an eye on the 3100 support, as long as it holds, you can hold it with peace of mind.
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