Bitcoin has opened a continuous selling wave since hitting a historical high of $126250 in early October, first falling below the $90,000 mark on November 18 (the first time in nearly 7 months). On December 1, it plummeted by 8% to $83786 during trading, a drop of over 30% from its peak, completely wiping out all gains since 2025. As of December 8, Bitcoin is weakly fluctuating in the range of $86,000 - $89,000, and has not yet formed a clear rebound trend.
After the last surge on October 6, the red line began to continue in sync with the blue and green lines. Although the price reached a new high, the MVRV value ultimately failed to break through the previous high of 2.42, still indicating a major divergence trend. Since the 'three-line convergence' itself is based on the theory of a 4-year bull-bear cycle, divergence means the end of a trend/cycle (which cannot be falsified temporarily). From the trend of the red line, it is indeed currently operating in the direction of the blue-green two lines according to the time rhythm of past cycles.
Following this, by December 31, the MVRV will be around 1.51-1.66. Based on the current RP calculation, the corresponding BTC price will be $85,000 - $94,000. Then, entering the new year of 2026, according to the trend of the 'three-line integration' metaphysical indicator, during the period from January to May, the MVRV will operate within a wide range of 1.27-1.85, corresponding to a BTC price of $71,000 - $104,000. Coincidentally, $104,000 is exactly the position of the STH-RP (short-term holder average cost basis) that we previously mentioned as the bull-bear dividing line. From a metaphysical perspective, it is difficult for the rebound height to significantly exceed this line (if it does, it means the bull-bear cycle theory has been completely broken). According to the traditional four-year cycle theory, the bottom of the bear market should occur between September and December of 2026. However, if the 2025 candlestick closes as a doji star, it would actually break the previous cycle's annual candlestick rhythm at a fast pace (see citation). The timing of the next cycle is changing, and the so-called 'bear bottom' may be advanced. It is not exactly as stated above; we can only verify with time.
